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An Exploration of the Effect of Doubt During Disasters on Equity Premiums

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  • Shiba Suzuki

Abstract

In this note, we consider the effect on equity premiums of a representative household’s subjective expectations during disasters. In particular, we focus on the effect of doubt during disasters. Our contribution is to demonstrate that doubt during disasters—even mild ones—generates high equity premiums.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiba Suzuki, 2013. "An Exploration of the Effect of Doubt During Disasters on Equity Premiums," Discussion Papers 22, Meisei University, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mei:wpaper:22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    3. Robert J. Barro & Tao Jin, 2011. "On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1567-1589, September.
    4. Saito, Makoto & Suzuki, Shiba, 2014. "Persistent Catastrophic Shocks And Equity Premiums: A Note," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(5), pages 1161-1171, July.
    5. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
    6. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
    7. Barro, Robert J. & Ursúa, José F., 2017. "Stock-market crashes and depressions," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 384-398.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    9. Abel, Andrew B., 2002. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1075-1092, July.
    10. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    11. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
    12. Francois Gourio, 2008. "Disasters and Recoveries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 68-73, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshiaki Hoshino & Ryuichiro Ishikawa & Akira Yamazaki, 2013. "Unequal Distribution of Powers in a Wicksellian Transfer Game," Discussion Papers 24, Meisei University, School of Economics.
    2. Akira Yamazaki, 2013. "Production Atomless Economies," Discussion Papers 25, Meisei University, School of Economics.
    3. Shiba Suzuki & Hiroaki Yamagami, 2020. "Optimism on Pollution-Driven Disasters and Asset Prices," Working Papers 2020.06, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    subjective expectations; disasters; equity premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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