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Optimism on Pollution-Driven Disasters and Asset Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Shiba Suzuki

    (Seikei University)

  • Hiroaki Yamagami

    (Seikei University)

Abstract

This study explores how investors' optimism about the likelihood of pollution-driven disaster occurrence affects asset prices. Environmental pollution resulting from economic activities raises the probability of disaster occurrence. However, the relationship between economic activities, pollution, and disaster occurrence is difficult to ascertain. Thus, investors make decisions based on subjective expectation; specifically, they subjectively evaluate the probability of disaster occurrence to be lower than its objective probability. As demonstrated in this study, the equity premiums under conditions of objective expectation are significantly higher than those under subjective expectation conditions only if a representative agent has high Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution (IES). This discrepancy in asset returns is related to the propensity of individuals to discount events occurring in the "distant future" as described in existing literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiba Suzuki & Hiroaki Yamagami, 2020. "Optimism on Pollution-Driven Disasters and Asset Prices," Working Papers 2020.06, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:fae:wpaper:2020.06
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations; Disasters; Equity Premium Puzzles; Discount Rate; Climate Change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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