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How Should the Distant Future be Discounted when Discount Rates are Uncertain?

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Author Info

  • Christian Gollier
  • Martin L. Weitzman

Abstract

It is not immediately clear how to discount distant-future events, like climate change, when the distant-future discount rate itself is uncertain. The so-called “Weitzman-Gollier puzzle” is the fact that two seemingly symmetric and equally plausible ways of dealing with uncertain future discount rates appear to give diametrically opposed results with the opposite policy implications. We explain how the “Weitzman-Gollier puzzle” is resolved. When agents optimize their consumption plans and probabilities are adjusted for risk, the two approaches are identical. What we would wish a reader to take away from this paper is the bottom-line message that the appropriate long run discount rate declines over time toward its lowest possible value.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2863.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2863

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Keywords: discount rate; term structure; climate change; cost-benefit analysis;

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References

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  1. Gollier, Christian, 2004. "Maximizing the expected net future value as an alternative strategy to gamma discounting," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 85-89, June.
  2. Martin L. Weitzman, 2001. "Gamma Discounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 260-271, March.
  3. Wolfgang Buchholz & Jan Schumacher, 2008. "Discounting the Long-Distant Future: A Simple Explanation for the Weitzman-Gollier-Puzzle," CESifo Working Paper Series 2357, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Christian Gollier, 2009. "Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series 2643, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. GOLLIER Christian, 2008. "Should we discount the far-distant future at its lowest possible rate?," LERNA Working Papers 08.30.274, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  6. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Discounting the distant future: how much do uncertain rates increase valuations?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 52-71, July.
  7. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2004. "Uncertain discount rates in climate policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 519-529, March.
  8. Hepburn, Cameron & Groom, Ben, 2007. "Gamma discounting and expected net future value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 99-109, January.
  9. Ekaterini Panopoulou & B. Groom & P. Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis, 2005. "Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1480105, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  10. Partha Dasgupta, 2008. "Discounting climate change," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 141-169, December.
  11. Freeman, Mark C., 2009. "Yes, we should discount the far-distant future at its lowest possible rate: a resolution of the Weitzman-Gollier puzzle," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-42, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  12. Weitzman, Martin L., 1998. "Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 201-208, November.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Discouting with uncertain discount rates
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-02-04 15:12:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
  1. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics > Discounting, equity, uncertainty
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Cited by:
  1. Weitzman, Martin L., 2010. "Risk-adjusted gamma discounting," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-13, July.
  2. Christian Gollier, 2013. "Asset Pricing with Uncertain Betas: A Long-Term Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4072, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Johansson-Stenman, Olof & Sterner, Thomas, 2013. "Discounting and Relative Consumption," Working Papers in Economics 559, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  4. Christian Gollier, 2011. "On the Underestimation of the Precautionary Effect in Discounting," CESifo Working Paper Series 3536, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Asset pricing with uncertain betas: A long-term perspective," IDEI Working Papers 752, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  6. Aline Chiabai & Ibon Galarraga & Anil Markandya & Unai Pascual, 2011. "The Equivalency Principle for Discounting the Value of Natural Assets: An Application to an Investment Project in the Basque Coast," Working Papers 2011-10, BC3.
  7. Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2013. "Declining discount rates and the Fisher Effect: Inflated past, discounted future?," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 109, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  8. Traeger, Christian P., 2012. "What’s the Rate? Disentangling the Weitzman and the Gollier Effect," CUDARE Working Paper Series 1121, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  9. Emhjellen, Magne & Osmundsen, Petter, 2012. "Rate of return requirement for climate versus petroleum projects," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/7, University of Stavanger.
  10. Mareike Schad & Jürgen John, 2012. "Towards a social discount rate for the economic evaluation of health technologies in Germany: an exploratory analysis," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 127-144, April.

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