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Economic transformation, population growth and the long-run world income distribution

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  • Chamon, Marcos
  • Kremer, Michael

Abstract

We present and calibrate a model where trade with advanced economies spurs development, and trade opportunities depend on the relative population in advanced and developing countries. As developing countries become advanced, prospects improve for the remaining developing countries. If population growth differentials between developing and advanced economies are small, economic development accelerates over time. Otherwise, long-run global prosperity requires a sufficiently large initial population in advanced countries. More open countries develop faster, but more openness by all developing countries may only modestly increase their aggregate growth. China's development may hurt developing countries in the short-run, but improves their long-run prospects.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 79 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 20-30

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:79:y:2009:i:1:p:20-30

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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Keywords: Economic development International trade Population growth;

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  1. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-87, June.
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  10. Oded_Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2006. "Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection," Working Papers 2006-01, Brown University, Department of Economics.
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  12. Michael Greenstone & Richard Hornbeck & Enrico Moretti, 2008. "Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Million Dollar Plants," Working Paper Series 36-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
  13. Young, Alwyn, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405, May.
  14. Tamura, Robert, 1996. "From decay to growth: A demographic transition to economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1237-1261.
  15. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
  16. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
  17. Kremer, Michael & Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James, 2001. "Searching for prosperity," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 275-303, December.
  18. Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
  19. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The Renminbi and Poor-Country Growth
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2011-12-02 09:41:00
  2. The world now grows in Fosbury style
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2011-04-05 09:59:00
  3. Toward Shifting Wealth Phase II
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2012-08-10 14:06:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Ou, Xunmin & Xiaoyu, Yan & Zhang, Xiliang, 2011. "Life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for electricity generation and supply in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 289-297, January.
  2. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Positive and Negative Population Growth and Long-Run Trade Patterns: A Non-Scale Growth Model," Discussion papers e-13-004, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  3. Luis Carvalho & Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2011. "Where are the poor in International Economics?," FEP Working Papers 425, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  4. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from 69 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 376-382, January.

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