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Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution

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  • Robert E. Lucas

Abstract

This paper proposes a model to describe the evolution of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The parameters of the model are calibrated using evidence from Sachs and Warner on economies classed as open, from Parente and Prescott on economies that have successfully begun to develop, and from Kuznets and the World Bank on the employment share of agriculture in various times and places. The theory predicts convergence of the income levels and growth rates in the open economies and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics. (JEL F41, O33, O47)

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.1.1.1
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-25

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:1-25

Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.1.1.1
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References

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  1. Ellen McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Openness, Technology Capital, and Development," NBER Working Papers 13515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2004. "Life Earnings and Rural-Urban Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages S29-S59, February.
  3. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Urban Structure and Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 597-624.
  4. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September.
  5. Baldwin, Richard & Martin, Philippe, 2003. "Agglomeration and Regional Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3960, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
  7. Kornai, Janos, 1992. "The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287766.
  8. Alvarez, Fernando & Lucas, Robert Jr., 2007. "General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1726-1768, September.
  9. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August.
  10. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  11. Tamura, Robert, 1991. "Income Convergence in an Endogenous Growth Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 522-40, June.
  12. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
  13. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306, December.
  14. Laitner, John, 2000. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 545-61, July.
  15. Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
  16. Henderson, J. Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1981. "Aspects of growth in a system of cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 117-139, July.
  17. repec:fth:stanho:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The Igon Value of Cognitive Dissonance
    by Dick Langlois in Organizations and Markets on 2009-11-19 19:28:33
  2. Robert E. Lucas
    by Metablog Obserwatora Finansowego in Obserwator Finansowy on 2009-12-10 11:59:58
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