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Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution

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Author Info
Robert E. Lucas

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Abstract

This paper proposes a model to describe the evolution of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The parameters of the model are calibrated using evidence from Sachs and Warner on economies classed as open, from Parente and Prescott on economies that have successfully begun to develop, and from Kuznets and the World Bank on the employment share of agriculture in various times and places. The theory predicts convergence of the income levels and growth rates in the open economies and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics. (JEL F41, O33, O47)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/mac.1.1.1
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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.1.1.1
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-25
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:1-25

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 934, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Baldwin, Richard E. & Martin, Philippe, 2004. "Agglomeration and regional growth," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 60, pages 2671-2711 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Urban Structure and Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 74(2), pages 597-624, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Laitner, John, 2000. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(3), pages 545-61, July.
  6. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2008. "Openness, technology capital, and development," Staff Report 396, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2004. "Life Earnings and Rural-Urban Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages S29-S59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306, January.
  12. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  13. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Henderson, J. Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1981. "Aspects of growth in a system of cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 117-139, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Alvarez, Fernando & Lucas, Robert Jr., 2007. "General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1726-1768, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andres Tamayo, . "La transición hacia una economía urbana y el aumento del producto per cápita: el caso colombiano del siglo XX desde la perspectiva de Lucas," Borradores de Economia 534, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "The Olympic Effect," NBER Working Papers 14854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Charles I. Jones & Paul M. Romer, 2009. "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital," NBER Working Papers 15094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2008. "Technology trap and poverty trap in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4582, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Openness, technology capital, and development," Working Papers 651, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Seung Mo Choi, 2008. "How Large are Learning Externalities? Measurement by Calibration," Working Papers 2008-26, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-10-30.

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