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Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution

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Author Info
Robert E. Lucas, Jr.

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Abstract

A model is proposed to describe the evolution of real GDPs in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The five parameters of the model are calibrated using the Sachs-Warner definition of openness and time-series and cross-section data on incomes and other variables from the 19th and 20th centuries. The model predicts convergence of income levels and growth rates and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13286.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13286

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O0 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
O19 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 934, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Laitner, John, 2000. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(3), pages 545-61, July.
  3. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Urban Structure and Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 74(2), pages 597-624, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Ellen McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Openness, Technology Capital, and Development," NBER Working Papers 13515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306.
  7. Henderson, J. Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1981. "Aspects of growth in a system of cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 117-139, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Baldwin, Richard E. & Martin, Philippe, 2004. "Agglomeration and regional growth," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 60, pages 2671-2711 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2004. "Life Earnings and Rural-Urban Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages S29-S59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  15. Alvarez, Fernando & Lucas, Robert Jr., 2007. "General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1726-1768, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2008. "Technology trap and poverty trap in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4582, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "The Olympic Effect," NBER Working Papers 14854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Openness, technology capital, and development," Working Papers 651, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andrés Tamayo, 2008. "La transición hacia una economía urbana y el aumento del producto per cápita: el caso colombiano del siglo XX desde la perspectiva de Lucas," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005111, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Charles I. Jones & Paul M. Romer, 2009. "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital," NBER Working Papers 15094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Seung Mo Choi, 2008. "How Large are Learning Externalities? Measurement by Calibration," Working Papers 2008-26, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University. [Downloadable!]
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