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Positive and Negative Population Growth and Long-Run Trade Patterns: A Non-Scale Growth Model

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  • Hiroaki Sasaki
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    Abstract

    This paper builds a two-country, two-sector, non-scale growth model and investigates the relationship between trade patterns and the growth rate of per capita real consumption. We consider negative population growth as well as positive population growth. We show that, as long as the population growth rates of the two countries are different, if the country that accumulates capital stock has negative population growth, no trade patterns are sustainable in the long run. This is true irrespective of the population growth rate of the other country. Moreover, we show that, if the country that accumulates capital stock has positive population growth, two trade patterns are sustainable in the long run. In this case, either each country's per capita growth is determined by the population growth of the capital-accumulating country or the population growth of both countries, depending on which of the two trade patterns is realized.

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    File URL: http://www.econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp/projectcenter/Paper/e-13-004.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University in its series Discussion papers with number e-13-004.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-13-004

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    Keywords: positive/negative population growth; trade patterns; non-scale growth model;

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    References

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    1. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2012. "International Trade and Industrialization with Negative Population Growth," Discussion papers e-12-009, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    2. Marcos Chamon & Michael Kremer, 2006. "Economic Transformation, Population Growth and the Long-Run World Income Distribution," NBER Working Papers 12038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kar-yiu Wong & Chong K. Yip, 1998. "Industrialization, Economic Growth and International Trade," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0077, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1999. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1888, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2007. "Specialization on a technologically stagnant sector need not be bad for growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(4), pages 682-701, October.
    6. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2011. "Trade, Nonā€Scale Growth And Uneven Development," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 691-711, November.
    7. Thomas Christiaans, 2011. "Semi-endogenous growth when population is decreasing," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2667-2673.
    8. Christiaans, Thomas, 2008. "International trade and industrialization in a non-scale model of economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 221-236, September.
    9. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August.
    10. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2011. "Population growth and north-south uneven development," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 307-330, April.
    11. Peretto, Pietro F., 1996. "Technological Change and Population Growth," Working Papers 96-28, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    12. Elias Dinopoulos & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2007. "Rent Protection as a Barrier to Innovation and Growth," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 309-332, August.
    13. Krugman, Paul, 1981. "Trade, accumulation, and uneven development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 149-161, April.
    14. Kaneko, Akihiko, 2000. "Terms of trade, economic growth, and trade patterns: a small open-economy case," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 169-181, October.
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