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Economic Transformation, Population Growth and the Long-Run World Income Distribution

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  • Marcos Chamon
  • Michael Kremer

Abstract

We construct and calibrate a model of the world economy in which countries’ opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. Trade opportunities in turn depend on the relative population of the advanced and developing world. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve the trade prospects for the remaining developing countries. As long as the population growth differential between developing and advanced countries is not too large, the rate at which countries transition to prosperity accelerates over time. However, if population growth differentials are large relative to the transition rate, the world economy converges to widespread prosperity if and only if the proportion of the world population in advanced countries is above a critical level. The model suggests that countries which become more open are more likely to grow, but that increased openness by developing countries as a whole may lead to only modest increases in growth for developing countries in aggregate. The rapid rise of China may hurt some developing countries in the short-run, but will open tremendous opportunities for the remaining developing countries in the long-run.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12038.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12038

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The Renminbi and Poor-Country Growth
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2011-12-02 09:41:00
  2. The world now grows in Fosbury style
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2011-04-05 09:59:00
  3. Toward Shifting Wealth Phase II
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2012-08-10 14:06:00
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Cited by:
  1. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Positive and Negative Population Growth and Long-Run Trade Patterns: A Non-Scale Growth Model," Discussion papers e-13-004, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  2. Luis Carvalho & Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2011. "Where are the poor in International Economics?," FEP Working Papers 425, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  3. Ou, Xunmin & Xiaoyu, Yan & Zhang, Xiliang, 2011. "Life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for electricity generation and supply in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 289-297, January.
  4. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from 69 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 376-382, January.

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