IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kue/dpaper/e-12-009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Trade and Industrialization with Negative Population Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroaki Sasaki

Abstract

This paper builds a small-open-economy, non-scale-growth model with negative population growth and investigates the relationship between trade patterns and per capita consumption growth. Under free trade, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is small, the home country becomes an agricultural country. Then, the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on the world population growth rate. On other hand, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is large, the home country becomes a manufacturing country. Then, the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on both the home country and the world population growth rate. Moreover, the home country is better off under free trade than under autarky in terms of per capita consumption growth irrespective of whether the population growth is positive or negative.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroaki Sasaki, 2012. "International Trade and Industrialization with Negative Population Growth," Discussion papers e-12-009, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-12-009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp/projectcenter/Paper/e-12-009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2012. "Trade Patterns and Non-Scale Growth between Two Countries," Discussion papers e-12-006, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    2. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2011. "Trade, Non‐Scale Growth And Uneven Development," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 691-711, November.
    3. Peretto, Pietro F, 1998. "Technological Change and Population Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 283-311, December.
    4. Thomas Christiaans, 2011. "Semi-endogenous growth when population is decreasing," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2667-2673.
    5. Wong, Kar-yiu & Yip, Chong K, 1999. "Industrialization, Economic Growth, and International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 522-540, August.
    6. Christiaans, Thomas, 2008. "International trade and industrialization in a non-scale model of economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 221-236, September.
    7. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2011. "Population growth and north-south uneven development," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 307-330, April.
    8. Holger Strulik, 2005. "The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D‐based Models of Economic Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 129-145, February.
    9. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2008. "International Trade And Industrialization With Capital Accumulation And Skill Acquisition," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(4), pages 464-486, July.
    10. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    11. Samuel S. Kortum, 1997. "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1389-1420, November.
    12. Peter Howitt, 1999. "Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(4), pages 715-730, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2021. "Non‐renewable resources and the possibility of sustainable economic development in an economy with positive or negative population growth," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 704-720, October.
    2. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Positive and Negative Population Growth and Long-Run Trade Patterns: A Non-Scale Growth Model," Discussion papers e-13-004, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    3. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Fukatani, Noriki & Imai, Daisuke & Kamanaka, Yusuke, 2022. "Sustainable Economic Growth in an Economy with Exhaustible Resources and a Declining Population under the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," MPRA Paper 113559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Mino, Kazuo, 2021. "Effects of Exhaustible Resources and Declining Population on Economic Growth with Hotelling's Rule," MPRA Paper 107787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2019. "Non-Renewable Resources and the Possibility of Sustainable Economic Development in a Positive or Negative Population Growth Economy," MPRA Paper 92204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ichiroh DAITOH & Hiroaki SASAKI, 2023. "At the Right Time:Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Model with Declining Population," Discussion papers e-23-002, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    7. Mino, Kazuo & Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2023. "Long-run consequences of population decline in an economy with exhaustible resources," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Azarnert, Leonid V., 2018. "Trade, Luxury Goods, And A Growth-Enhancing Tariff," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1462-1474, September.
    9. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Hoshida, Keisuke, 2014. "Semi-Endogenous R&D Growth Model with Negative Population Growth," MPRA Paper 53833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kazuo Mino & Hiroaki Sasaki, 2021. "Long-Run Consequences of Population Decline in an Economy with Exhaustible Natural Resources," KIER Working Papers 1062, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Positive and Negative Population Growth and Long-Run Trade Patterns: A Non-Scale Growth Model," Discussion papers e-13-004, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    2. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2017. "Population growth and trade patterns in semi-endogenous growth economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2012. "Trade Patterns and Non-Scale Growth between Two Countries," Discussion papers e-12-006, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    4. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    5. repec:got:cegedp:140 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    7. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    8. Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth. A survey," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 593-608, December.
    9. Hof, Franz X. & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "The quest for status and R&D-based growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 290-307.
    10. Strulik, Holger & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2010. "R\&D-based Growth in the Post-modern Era," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-457, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    11. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2020. "The scientific revolution and its role in the transition to sustained economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 06-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    12. Werner, Katharina & Prettner, Klaus, 2014. "Human capital, basic research, and applied research: three dimensions of human knowledge and their differential growth effects," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100448, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner & Klaus Prettner & Jens Südekum, 2020. "Three Pillars of Urbanization: Migration, Aging, and Growth," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 259-278, June.
    14. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "The past and future of knowledge-based growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 411-437, December.
    15. Thomas I. Renström & Luca Spataro, 2015. "Population Growth and Human Capital: A Welfarist Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 110-141, December.
    16. Alberto Bucci & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 1025-1068, July.
    17. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2023. "The scientific revolution and its implications for long-run economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2017. "The lost race against the machine: Automation, education and inequality in an R&D-based growth model," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 08-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    19. Prettner, Klaus & Werner, Katharina, 2016. "Why it pays off to pay us well: The impact of basic research on economic growth and welfare," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 1075-1090.
    20. Herzer Dierk, 2022. "Semi-endogenous Versus Schumpeterian Growth Models: A Critical Review of the Literature and New Evidence," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 73(1), pages 1-55, April.
    21. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-scale-growth model; negative population growth; trade patterns; per capita growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-12-009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Graduate School of Economics Project Center (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fekyojp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.