IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v34y2014icp177-188.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forward–futures price differences in the UK commercial property market: Arbitrage and marking-to-model explanations

Author

Listed:
  • Stanescu, Silvia
  • Tunaru, Radu
  • Candradewi, Made Reina

Abstract

In this paper the differences between forward and futures prices for the UK commercial property market are analyzed, using both time series and panel data. A first battery of tests establishes that the observed differences are statistically significant over the study period. Further analysis considers the modeling of this difference using mean-reverting models. The proposed models are then estimated with a number of alternative estimation methods and second stage statistical tests are implemented in order to decide which model and estimation method best represent the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanescu, Silvia & Tunaru, Radu & Candradewi, Made Reina, 2014. "Forward–futures price differences in the UK commercial property market: Arbitrage and marking-to-model explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 177-188.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:34:y:2014:i:c:p:177-188
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2014.05.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521914000842
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2014.05.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March.
    2. Kane, Edward J, 1980. "Market Incompleteness and Divergences between Forward and Future Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 221-234, May.
    3. Lo, Andrew W., 1988. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Itô Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 231-247, August.
    4. Michael A. Polakoff & Fernando Diz, 1992. "The theoretical source of autocorrelation in forward and futures price relationships," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 459-473, August.
    5. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    6. Grinblatt, Mark & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1996. "Relative Pricing of Eurodollar Features and Forward Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1499-1522, September.
    7. Robert A. JARROW & George S. OLDFIELD, 2008. "Forward Contracts And Futures Contracts," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 11, pages 237-246, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Robert J. Shiller, 2008. "Derivatives Markets for Home Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1648, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Michael A. Polakoff, 1991. "A note on the role of futures indivisibility: Reconciling the theoretical literature," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 117-120, February.
    10. French, Kenneth R., 1983. "A comparison of futures and forward prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 311-342, November.
    11. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273, September.
    12. Cornell, Bradford & Reinganum, Marc R, 1981. "Forward and Futures Prices: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1035-1045, December.
    13. Meulbroek, Lisa, 1992. "A Comparison of Forward and Futures Prices of an Interest Rate-Sensitive Financial Asset," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 381-396, March.
    14. Shiller, Robert J & Weiss, Allan N, 1999. "Home Equity Insurance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-47, July.
    15. Lakshman A. Alles & Phoebe P.K. Peace, 2001. "Futures and forward price differential and the effect of marking‐to‐market: Australian evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 41(1‐2), pages 1-24, July.
    16. Frank J. Fabozzi & Robert J. Shiller & Radu S. Tunaru, 2012. "A Pricing Framework for Real Estate Derivatives," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 762-789, November.
    17. Richard, Scott F. & Sundaresan, M., 1981. "A continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 347-371, December.
    18. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    19. Wimschulte, Jens, 2010. "The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4731-4733, August.
    20. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tunaru, Radu & Zheng, Teng, 2017. "Parameter estimation risk in asset pricing and risk management: A Bayesian approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 80-93.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Anurag & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2000. "An empirical examination of the convexity bias in the pricing of interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 239-279, February.
    2. Frank J. Fabozzi & Robert J. Shiller & Radu S. Tunaru, 2012. "A Pricing Framework for Real Estate Derivatives," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 762-789, November.
    3. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    4. Lin, James Wuh, 1996. "Arbitrage, carrying costs, and inflation: A reexamination of market efficiency in treasury bill futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 207-222.
    5. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    6. Jack S. K. Chang & Jean C. H. Loo & Carolyn C. Wu Chang, 1990. "The Pricing Of Futures Contracts And The Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 13(4), pages 297-306, December.
    7. Berglund, T. & Kabir, R., 1995. "What explains the difference between the futures' price and its "fair" value? : evidence from the european options exchange," Other publications TiSEM 323234f7-ff9e-46bb-aa61-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Kempf, Alexander & Spengel, Christoph, 1993. "Die Bewertung des DAX-Futures: Der Einfluß von Dividenden," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-12, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1987. "Foreign currency futures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
    10. Wimschulte, Jens, 2010. "The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4731-4733, August.
    11. Robert W. Kolb & Gerald D. Gay, 1985. "A Pricing Anomaly In Treasury Bill Futures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 8(2), pages 157-167, June.
    12. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Douglas Foster, F. & Lee, Adrian D. & Liu, Wai-Man, 2019. "CFDs, forwards, futures and the cost-of-carry," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 183-198.
    14. Carolyn W. Chang & Jack S. K. Chang & Hsing Fang, 1996. "Optimal Futures Hedge With Marking-To-Market And Stochastic Interest Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 309-326, September.
    15. Berglund, T. & Kabir, M.R., 2003. "What explains the difference between the futures' price and its "fair" value? Evidence from the Euronext Amsterdam," Other publications TiSEM ec81c70e-739d-4b03-be66-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Frontczak, Robert & Rostek, Stefan, 2015. "Modeling loss given default with stochastic collateral," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-170.
    17. Lioui, Abraham, 1998. "Currency risk hedging: Futures vs. forward," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-81, January.
    18. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, December.
    19. Jonathan Kearns, 2007. "Commodity Currencies: Why Are Exchange Rate Futures Biased if Commodity Futures Are Not?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 60-73, March.
    20. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Total return swaps and futures; Panel data; Mean-reversion; Markov Chain Monte Carlo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:34:y:2014:i:c:p:177-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.