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Derivatives Markets for Home Prices

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  • Robert J. Shiller

Abstract

The establishment recently of risk management vehicles for home prices is described. The potential value of such vehicles, once they become established, is seen in consideration of the inefficiency of the market for single family homes. Institutional changes that might derive from the establishment of these new markets are described. An important reason for these beginnings of real estate derivative markets is the advance in home price index construction methods, notably the repeat sales method, that have appeared over the last twenty years. Psychological barriers to the full success of such markets are discussed.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13962.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13962

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  1. Karl Case & John Quigley, 2008. "How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Feedbacks through Financial Markets," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 161-180.
  2. Case, Bradford & Quigley, John M, 1991. "The Dynamics of Real Estate Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 50-58, February.
  3. Palmquist, Raymond B, 1980. "Alternative Techniques for Developing Real Estate Price Indexes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 442-48, August.
  4. Karl E Case & John M Quigley & Robert J Shiller, 2003. "Home-buyers, Housing and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  5. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-69, June.
  6. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-occupied housing as a hedge against rent risk," Working Papers 05-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, . "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 322, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 1992. "Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures Indices and Perpetual Futures," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1036, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  12. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-24, December.
  13. Joseph Gyourko & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2006. "Superstar Cities," NBER Working Papers 12355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 3368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Jonathan H. Mark & Michael A. Goldberg, 1984. "Alternative Housing Price Indices: An Evaluation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(1), pages 30-49.
  16. Andrew Caplin & William Goetzmann & Eric Hangen & Barry Nalebuff & Elisabeth Prentice & John Rodkin & Matthew Spiegel & Tom Skinner, 2003. "Home Equity Insurance: A Pilot Project," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm372, Yale School of Management, revised 23 Jan 2006.
  17. Paul D. Childs & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2002. "Optimal Valuation of Noisy Real Assets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 385-414.
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Cited by:
  1. Shawn Cole & Xavier Gine & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2013. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 104-35, January.
  2. Hill, Robert J. & Melser, Daniel & Syed, Iqbal, 2009. "Measuring a boom and bust: The Sydney housing market 2001-2006," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 193-205, September.

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