IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v97y2021ics0140988321001146.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How regional policies reduce carbon emissions in electricity markets: Fuel switching or emission leakage

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Yishu
  • Huang, Ling

Abstract

There are many concerns that regional carbon programs reduce emissions through emission leakage instead of through fuel switching. We use individual firm-level data to investigate the mechanisms of how the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) reduces CO2 emissions and quantify emission leakage. We find that the RGGI program reduced CO2 emissions by 13.43% of the total emissions from 2009 to 2017 in the RGGI area, among which only 14.35% of the emissions reduction is due to fuel switching from coal to natural gas. From 43.11% (the lower bound) to 85.65% (the upper bound) of the emissions reduction in the RGGI-regulated states are leaked into unregulated areas. We also find that policy-induced fuel switching and fuel price-induced fuel switching increase natural gas heat percentage (natural gas heat input relative to natural gas and coal heat input) in the regulated area by 2.98% and 5.17%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Yishu & Huang, Ling, 2021. "How regional policies reduce carbon emissions in electricity markets: Fuel switching or emission leakage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:97:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321001146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321001146
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105209?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James B. Bushnell & Erin T. Mansur & Celeste Saravia, 2008. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured US Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 237-266, March.
    2. Shawhan, Daniel L. & Taber, John T. & Shi, Di & Zimmerman, Ray D. & Yan, Jubo & Marquet, Charles M. & Qi, Yingying & Mao, Biao & Schuler, Richard E. & Schulze, William D. & Tylavsky, Daniel, 2014. "Does a detailed model of the electricity grid matter? Estimating the impacts of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 191-207.
    3. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 2016. "Carbon Leakages: A General Equilibrium View," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Graciela Chichilnisky & Armon Rezai (ed.), The Economics of the Global Environment, pages 341-363, Springer.
    4. Qunyong Wang, 2015. "Fixed-effect panel threshold model using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 15(1), pages 121-134, March.
    5. Murray, Brian C. & Maniloff, Peter T., 2015. "Why have greenhouse emissions in RGGI states declined? An econometric attribution to economic, energy market, and policy factors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 581-589.
    6. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2015. "Kyoto and Carbon Leakage: An Empirical Analysis of the Carbon Content of Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 104-115, March.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7970 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Stuart L. Hart & Gautam Ahuja, 1996. "Does It Pay To Be Green? An Empirical Examination Of The Relationship Between Emission Reduction And Firm Performance," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 30-37, March.
    9. Joskow, Paul L & Schmalensee, Richard & Bailey, Elizabeth M, 1998. "The Market for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 669-685, September.
    10. Joshua Linn & Erin Mastrangelo & Dallas Burtraw, 2014. "Regulating Greenhouse Gases from Coal Power Plants under the Clean Air Act," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 97-134.
    11. Stavins, Robert N., 2003. "Experience with market-based environmental policy instruments," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 355-435, Elsevier.
    12. Fabra, Natalia & Toro, Juan, 2005. "Price wars and collusion in the Spanish electricity market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 155-181, April.
    13. Fell, Harrison & Maniloff, Peter, 2018. "Leakage in regional environmental policy: The case of the regional greenhouse gas initiative," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-23.
    14. Stephen P. Holland, 2009. "Taxes and Trading versus Intensity Standards: Second-Best Environmental Policies with Incomplete Regulation (Leakage) or Market Power," NBER Working Papers 15262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    16. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Morris, Adele C. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2014. "Pricing carbon in the U.S.: A model-based analysis of power-sector-only approaches," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 130-150.
    17. Ellerman,A. Denny & Joskow,Paul L. & Schmalensee,Richard & Montero,Juan-Pablo & Bailey,Elizabeth M., 2005. "Markets for Clean Air," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023894.
      • Ellerman,A. Denny & Joskow,Paul L. & Schmalensee,Richard & Montero,Juan-Pablo & Bailey,Elizabeth M., 2000. "Markets for Clean Air," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521660839.
    18. Chan, H. Ron & Fell, Harrison & Lange, Ian & Li, Shanjun, 2017. "Efficiency and environmental impacts of electricity restructuring on coal-fired power plants," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-18.
    19. Robert N. Stavins, 1998. "What Can We Learn from the Grand Policy Experiment? Lessons from SO2 Allowance Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 69-88, Summer.
    20. John R. Swinton, 1998. "At What Cost do We Reduce Pollution? Shadow Prices of SO2 Emissions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 63-83.
    21. Brian C. Murray & Peter T. Maniloff & Evan M. Murray, 2015. "Why Have Greenhouse Emissions in RGGI States Declined? An Econometric Attribution to Economic, Energy Market and Policy Factors (Payne Institute Policy Brief)," Payne Institute Policy Briefs 2014-04, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    22. Frank Wolak, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Hedge Contracts on Bidding Behavior in a Competitive Electricity Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 1-39.
    23. Erin T. Mansur, 2008. "Measuring Welfare in Restructured Electricity Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 369-386, May.
    24. Alexandre Kossoy & Pierre Guigon, "undated". "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2012," World Bank Publications - Reports 13336, The World Bank Group.
    25. Ellerman, A. Denny & Montero, Juan-Pablo, 1998. "The Declining Trend in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Allowance Prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 26-45, July.
    26. A. Lans Bovenberg & Lawrence H. Goulder & Derek J. Gurney, 2005. "Efficiency Costs of Meeting Industry-Distributional Constraints Under Environmental Permits and Taxes," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(4), pages 950-970, Winter.
    27. Robin Smale & Murray Hartley & Cameron Hepburn & John Ward & Michael Grubb, 2006. "The impact of CO 2 emissions trading on firm profits and market prices," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 31-48, January.
    28. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
    29. Steven L. Puller, 2007. "Pricing and Firm Conduct in California's Deregulated Electricity Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 75-87, February.
    30. Ricardo Mora & Iliana Reggio, 2015. "didq: A command for treatment-effect estimation under alternative assumptions," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 15(3), pages 796-808, September.
    31. Ruth, Matthias & Gabriel, Steven A. & Palmer, Karen L. & Burtraw, Dallas & Paul, Anthony & Chen, Yihsu & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Irani, Daraius & Michael, Jeffrey & Ross, Kim M. & Conklin, Russell & Mill, 2008. "Economic and energy impacts from participation in the regional greenhouse gas initiative: A case study of the State of Maryland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 2279-2289, June.
    32. Chen, Yihsu, 2009. "Does a regional greenhouse gas policy make sense? A case study of carbon leakage and emissions spillover," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 667-675, September.
    33. Zhou, Yishu & Huang, Ling, 2016. "Have U.S. power plants become less technically efficient? The impact of carbon emission regulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 105-115.
    34. Ling Huang & Yishu Zhou, 2019. "Carbon Prices and Fuel Switching: A Quasi-experiment in Electricity Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 53-98, September.
    35. Joseph A. Cullen & Erin T. Mansur, 2017. "Inferring Carbon Abatement Costs in Electricity Markets: A Revealed Preference Approach Using the Shale Revolution," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 106-133, August.
    36. Mora, Ricardo & Reggio, Iliana, 2012. "Treatment effect identification using alternative parallel assumptions," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1233, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    37. Claudia Hitaj & Andrew Stocking, 2014. "Market Efficiency and the U.S. Market for Sulfur Dioxide Allowances: Working Paper 2014-01," Working Papers 45044, Congressional Budget Office.
    38. repec:wbk:wboper:13335 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Qingyu & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2021. "Economic efficiency of alternative border carbon adjustment schemes: A case study of California Carbon Pricing and the Western North American power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Diana Blagu & Denisa Szabo & Diana Dragomir & Călin Neamțu & Daniela Popescu, 2022. "Offering Carbon Smart Options through Product Development to Meet Customer Expectations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Tan, Xiujie & Sun, Qian & Wang, Meiji & Se Cheong, Tsun & Yan Shum, Wai & Huang, Jinpeng, 2022. "Assessing the effects of emissions trading systems on energy consumption and energy mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    4. Lai, Aolin & Wang, Qunwei & Cui, Lianbiao, 2022. "Can market segmentation lead to green paradox? Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    5. Yishu Zhou & Joseph D. Smith & Greg Gelles, 2022. "Teaching Energy Economics in the GCC: A Synergistic Approach between Engineering and Economics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-11, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ling Huang & Yishu Zhou, 2019. "Carbon Prices and Fuel Switching: A Quasi-experiment in Electricity Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 53-98, September.
    2. Yan, Jingchi, 2021. "The impact of climate policy on fossil fuel consumption: Evidence from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Lange, Ian & Maniloff, Peter, 2021. "Updating allowance allocations in cap-and-trade: Evidence from the NOx Budget Program," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    4. Xu, Qingyu & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2021. "Economic efficiency of alternative border carbon adjustment schemes: A case study of California Carbon Pricing and the Western North American power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Fell, Harrison & Maniloff, Peter, 2018. "Leakage in regional environmental policy: The case of the regional greenhouse gas initiative," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-23.
    6. Stavins, Robert, 2001. "Lessons From the American Experiment With Market-Based Environmental Policies," RFF Working Paper Series dp-01-53, Resources for the Future.
    7. Stavins, Robert, 2003. "Market-Based Environmental Policies: What Can We Learn from U.S. Experience and Related Research?," Working Paper Series rwp03-031, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    8. Revesz, Richard & Stavins, Robert, 2004. "Environmental Law and Policy," Working Paper Series rwp04-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    9. Lee, Kangil & Melstrom, Richard T., 2018. "Evidence of increased electricity influx following the regional greenhouse gas initiative," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 127-135.
    10. Holland, Stephen P. & Moore, Michael R., 2013. "Market design in cap and trade programs: Permit validity and compliance timing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 671-687.
    11. Chan, Nathan W. & Morrow, John W., 2019. "Unintended consequences of cap-and-trade? Evidence from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 411-422.
    12. Graf, Christoph & Wozabal, David, 2013. "Measuring competitiveness of the EPEX spot market for electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 948-958.
    13. Ali Hortaçsu & Steven L. Puller, 2008. "Understanding strategic bidding in multi‐unit auctions: a case study of the Texas electricity spot market," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(1), pages 86-114, March.
    14. Robert W. Hahn & Robert N. Stavins, 2011. "The Effect of Allowance Allocations on Cap-and-Trade System Performance," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(S4), pages 267-294.
    15. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Electricity Market Structure Changes and Mergers: The Importance of Forward Commitments," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-137, February.
    16. David P. Brown & Derek E. H. Olmstead, 2017. "Measuring market power and the efficiency of Alberta's restructured electricity market: An energy-only market design," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 838-870, August.
    17. Feng, Hongli & Zhao, Jinhua, 2006. "Alternative intertemporal permit trading regimes with stochastic abatement costs," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 24-40, January.
    18. Abe, Tatsuya & Arimura, Toshi H., 2022. "Causal effects of the Tokyo emissions trading scheme on energy consumption and economic performance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    19. Linn, Joshua & Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2018. "The heterogeneous impacts of low natural gas prices on consumers and the environment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-28.
    20. Stavins, Robert N., 2019. "The Future of U.S. Carbon-Pricing Policy: Normative Assessment and Positive Prognosis," Working Paper Series rwp19-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon emission market; Price signals; Emission leakage; RGGI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:97:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321001146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.