IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v80y2019icp983-994.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the economic impacts of power supply interruptions

Author

Listed:
  • Botelho, Vinícius

Abstract

The cost of power system rationing, which is a crucial parameter for determining optimal resilience investments, is usually estimated using reduced-form linear models or ordinary input-output analysis. However, such methods do not properly address either consumers' rational reactions to rationing policy or policy design nonlinearities. To solve this problem, this paper estimates the effects of power system rationing using a general equilibrium model. The model solution shows that the power cut distribution among industries is a critical variable for quantifying policy effects and provides insights into optimal policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Botelho, Vinícius, 2019. "Estimating the economic impacts of power supply interruptions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 983-994.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:983-994
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.02.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988319300726
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.02.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. G. Mankiw, 2009. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 5.
    2. Carlsson, Fredrik & Martinsson, Peter, 2008. "Does it matter when a power outage occurs? -- A choice experiment study on the willingness to pay to avoid power outages," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1232-1245, May.
    3. Herriges, Joseph A. & Caves, Douglas W. & Windle, R. J., 1992. "The Cost of Power Interruptions in the Industrial Sector: Estimates Derived from Interruptible Service Programs," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10789, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Christopher W. Anderson & Joost R. Santos & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2007. "A Risk-based Input-Output Methodology for Measuring the Effects of the August 2003 Northeast Blackout," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 183-204.
    5. Wolf, André & Wenzel, Lars, 2015. "Welfare implications of power rationing: An application to Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-62.
    6. Adam Rose, 2015. "Macroeconomic consequences of terrorist attacks: estimation for the analysis of policies and rules," Chapters, in: Carol Mansfield & V. K. Smith (ed.), Benefit–Cost Analyses for Security Policies, chapter 8, pages 172-200, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Sunhee Baik & M. Granger Morgan & Alexander L. Davis, 2018. "Providing Limited Local Electric Service During a Major Grid Outage: A First Assessment Based on Customer Willingness to Pay," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 272-282, February.
    8. Adam Rose & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2005. "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 75-112, February.
    9. Cheng, Y.S. & Wong, W.K. & Woo, C.K., 2013. "How much have electricity shortages hampered China's GDP growth?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 369-373.
    10. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    12. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    13. Benjamin Bental & S. Abraham Ravid, 1982. "A Simple Method for Evaluating the Marginal Cost of Unsupplied Electricity," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(1), pages 249-253, Spring.
    14. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Haitovsky, Yoel, 1998. "Response bias in a conjoint analysis of power outages," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 135-156, April.
    15. Olaf Jonkeren & Georgios Giannopoulos, 2014. "Analysing Critical Infrastructure Failure With A Resilience Inoperability Input--Output Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 39-59, March.
    16. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    17. Sanghvi, Arun P., 1982. "Economic costs of electricity supply interruptions : US and foreign experience," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 180-198, July.
    18. Chen, Zhenhua & Rose, Adam Z. & Prager, Fynnwin & Chatterjee, Samrat, 2017. "Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 207-226.
    19. Paulo Sérgio Vasconcelos & Lucio Guido Tapia Carpio, 2015. "Estimating the economic costs of electricity deficit using input–output analysis: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(9), pages 916-927, February.
    20. Sunhee Baik & Alexander L. Davis & M. Granger Morgan, 2018. "Assessing the Cost of Large‐Scale Power Outages to Residential Customers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 283-296, February.
    21. Lucio Guido Tapia Carpio, 2014. "Cointegration Relationships to Estimate the Marginal Cost of Deficit in Planning a Hydrothermal System: The Case of Brazil," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 117-124.
    22. de Nooij, Michiel & Lieshout, Rogier & Koopmans, Carl, 2009. "Optimal blackouts: Empirical results on reducing the social cost of electricity outages through efficient regional rationing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 342-347, May.
    23. Harish, Santosh M. & Morgan, Granger M. & Subrahmanian, Eswaran, 2014. "When does unreliable grid supply become unacceptable policy? Costs of power supply and outages in rural India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 158-169.
    24. Hatemi, A. & Irandoust, M., 2005. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Sweden: A Leveraged Bootstrap Approach, 1965-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(4), pages 87-98.
    25. Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
    26. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 47-68, Fall.
    27. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, December.
    28. Dipa Adhikari & Yanying Chen, 2013. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration Analysis for Developing Countries," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 68-80, May.
    29. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Whinston, Michael D. & Green, Jerry R., 1995. "Microeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195102680, Decembrie.
    30. Mohan Munasinghe & Mark Gellerson, 1979. "Economic Criteria for Optimizing Power System Reliability Levels," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 353-365, Spring.
    31. Alper Aslan & Hakan Kum, 2010. "An investigation of cointegration between energy consumption and economic growth: Dynamic evidence from East Asian countries," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 431-439.
    32. Joost R. Santos & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2004. "Modeling the Demand Reduction Input‐Output (I‐O) Inoperability Due to Terrorism of Interconnected Infrastructures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1437-1451, December.
    33. de Nooij, Michiel & Koopmans, Carl & Bijvoet, Carlijn, 2007. "The value of supply security: The costs of power interruptions: Economic input for damage reduction and investment in networks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-295, March.
    34. Peng Ou & Ruting Huang & Xin Yao, 2016. "Economic Impacts of Power Shortage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-21, July.
    35. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption, real income and prices with an application to two Asian LDCs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1287-1298.
    36. Benjamin S. Cheng, 1999. "Causality Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in India: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 39-49, January.
    37. Douglas W. Caves & Joseph A. Herriges & Robert J. Windle, 1992. "The Cost of Electric Power Interruptions in the Industrial Sector: Estimates Derived from Interruptible Service Programs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 68(1), pages 49-61.
    38. Zhenhua Chen & Adam Rose, 2018. "Economic resilience to transportation failure: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1009-1027, July.
    39. Kash Barker & Joost R. Santos, 2010. "A Risk‐Based Approach for Identifying Key Economic and Infrastructure Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(6), pages 962-974, June.
    40. Serra, Pablo & Fierro, Gabriel, 1997. "Outage costs in Chilean industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 417-434, October.
    41. Jacobo Campo & Viviana Sarmiento, 2013. "The Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from a Panel of 10 Latin American Countries," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 50(2), pages 233-255, November.
    42. Reichl, Johannes & Schmidthaler, Michael & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "The value of supply security: The costs of power outages to Austrian households, firms and the public sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 256-261.
    43. Beenstock, Michael, 1991. "Generators and the cost of electricity outages," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 283-289, October.
    44. Barker, Kash & Santos, Joost R., 2010. "Measuring the efficacy of inventory with a dynamic input-output model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 130-143, July.
    45. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    46. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    47. Mudassir Zaman & Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sadia Qamar, 2015. "Examining Relationship between Electricity Consumption and its Major Determinants in Pakistan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 998-1009.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jamil, Faisal & Islam, Tanweer Ul, 2023. "Outage-induced power backup choice in Pakistan," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolf, André & Wenzel, Lars, 2016. "Regional diversity in the costs of electricity outages: Results for German counties," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(PB), pages 195-205.
    2. Wolf, André & Wenzel, Lars, 2015. "Welfare implications of power rationing: An application to Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-62.
    3. de Nooij, Michiel & Baarsma, Barbara & Bloemhof, Gabriël & Slootweg, Han & Dijk, Harold, 2010. "Development and application of a cost-benefit framework for energy reliability: Using probabilistic methods in network planning and regulation to enhance social welfare: The N-1 rule," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1277-1282, November.
    4. Abrate, Graziano & Bruno, Clementina & Erbetta, Fabrizio & Fraquelli, Giovanni & Lorite-Espejo, Azahara, 2016. "A choice experiment on the willingness of households to accept power outages," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(PB), pages 151-164.
    5. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    6. Mubashir Qasim & Koji Kotani, 2014. "An empirical analysis of energy shortage in Pakistan," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 21(1), pages 137-166, June.
    7. Röpke, Luise, 2013. "The development of renewable energies and supply security: A trade-off analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1011-1021.
    8. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
    9. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Navigating the energy trilemma during geopolitical and environmental crises," Papers 2301.07671, arXiv.org.
    10. Clementina Bruno & Ugo Finardi & Azahara Lorite-Espejo & Elena Ragazzi, 2016. "Emerging costs deriving from blackouts for individual firms: evidence from an Italian case study," quaderni IRCrES 201601, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY.
    11. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    12. Drissi, Ramzi & Ghassan, Hassan B., 2018. "Sticky Price versus Sticky Information Price: Empirical Evidence in the New Keynesian Setting," MPRA Paper 93075, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2019.
    13. Majid Hashemi & Glenn P. Jenkins & Roop Jyoti & Aygul Ozbafli, 2018. "Evaluating the Cost to Industry of Electricity Outages," Development Discussion Papers 2018-14, JDI Executive Programs.
    14. Alastaire S na ALINSATO, 2015. "Economic Valuation of Electrical Service Reliability for Households in Developing Country: A Censored Random Coefficient Model Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 352-359.
    15. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, "undated". "Macroeconomic Modelling and the Effects of Policy Reforms: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and," Working Papers 1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    16. Landegren, Finn & Johansson, Jonas & Samuelsson, Olof, 2019. "Quality of supply regulations versus societal priorities regarding electricity outage consequences: Case study in a Swedish context," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    17. Serra, Pablo & Fierro, Gabriel, 1997. "Outage costs in Chilean industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 417-434, October.
    18. de Nooij, Michiel & Koopmans, Carl & Bijvoet, Carlijn, 2007. "The value of supply security: The costs of power interruptions: Economic input for damage reduction and investment in networks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-295, March.
    19. Luise Röpke, 2015. "Essays on the Integration of New Energy Sources into Existing Energy Systems," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 58.
    20. Pepermans, Guido, 2011. "The value of continuous power supply for Flemish households," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7853-7864.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:983-994. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.