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Regional diversity in the costs of electricity outages: Results for German counties

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  • Piaszeck, Simon
  • Wenzel, Lars
  • Wolf, André
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    Abstract

    The aim of this study is to quantify the macroeconomic costs resulting from a one hour power outage at the level of German counties. This is done by combining public data from various sources based on a well-established methodology, which both accounts for production losses of firms and losses in well-being of consumers. As a main result, we identify a North-South divide in the vulnerability of German counties, with counties in southern Germany tending to face larger losses. At the same time, considerable heterogeneity can also be found in small-scale comparisons, confirming the need for a spatially disaggregated analysis. We discuss the implications of our results for the debate on network expansion in Germany, suggesting that a stronger focus on outage costs could represent an important step towards a real cost-benefit analysis of expansion projects. -- Ziel dieser Studie ist eine Schätzung der potentiellen Kosten eines einstündigen Stromausfalls für die deutschen Kreise. Hierzu werden Daten aus der VGR über eine in der Literatur etablierte Methodik zusammengeführt, welche sowohl Schäden aus Produktionsausfällen als auch Wohlfahrtseinbußen der Haushalte in die Kalkulation miteinbezieht. Als ein wichtiges Ergebnis lässt sich eine Nord-Süd Divergenz in der Gefährdung der deutschen Kreise feststellen, wobei die Verluste im Süden der Republik als tendenziell stärker geschätzt werden. Gleichzeitig Ist ein gewisses Maß an Heterogenität aber auch auf kleinräumlicher Ebene zu beobachten, was als Rechtfertigung für unseren räumlich disaggregierten Ansatz gesehen werden kann. Die Studie schließt mit einer Diskussion der Bedeutung unserer Ergebnisse für die aktuelle Debatte zum Ausbau der Stromnetze in Deutschland. Eine stärkere Berücksichtigung von Ausfallkosten kann aus unserer Sicht dabei einen bedeutenden Schritt auf dem Weg zu einer umfassenden Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse von Netzausbauprojekten darstellen.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) in its series HWWI Research Papers with number 142.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:142

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    References

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    1. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-32, Nov.-Dec..
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    14. de Nooij, Michiel & Lieshout, Rogier & Koopmans, Carl, 2009. "Optimal blackouts: Empirical results on reducing the social cost of electricity outages through efficient regional rationing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 342-347, May.
    15. Michael J. Doane & Raymand S. Hartman & Chi-Keung Woo, 1988. "Household Preference for Interruptible Rate Options and the Revealed Value of Service Reliability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 121-134.
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