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Are heterogeneous FOMC forecasts consistent with the Fed’s monetary policy?

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  • Fendel, Ralf
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph
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    Abstract

    Yes, they are! We find that although there is a surprisingly high dispersion of individual forecasts and some dissent on the Federal Funds target, the FOMC’s individual behavior is well described by a Taylor-type rule.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176512000043
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 116 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 5-7

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:116:y:2012:i:1:p:5-7

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

    Related research

    Keywords: FOMC; Forecasts; Taylor rule;

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    References

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
    2. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Tillmann, Peter, 2011. "Do FOMC members herd?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 176-179.
      • Jan-Christoph Rülke & Peter Tillmann, 2010. "Do FOMC Members Herd?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201032, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    5. David H. Romer, 2009. "A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC," NBER Working Papers 15208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Tillmann, Peter, 2011. "Strategic forecasting on the FOMC," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 547-553, September.
    7. Henry W. Chappell, Jr. & Rob Roy McGregor & Todd A. Vermilyea, 2005. "Committee Decisions on Monetary Policy: Evidence from Historical Records of the Federal Open Market Committee," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033305, December.
    8. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Economic projections and rules-of-thumb for monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Meade, Ellen E & Sheets, D Nathan, 2005. "Regional Influences on FOMC Voting Patterns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 661-77, August.
    10. Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Using FOMC forecasts to forecast the economy," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Ellen E. Meade, 2005. "The FOMC: preferences, voting, and consensus," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 93-101.
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    Cited by:
    1. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?," Discussion Papers 77, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    2. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2013. "Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?," Working Paper Series 1579, European Central Bank.
    3. Ellis, Michael A. & Liu, Dandan, 2013. "Do FOMC forecasts add value to staff forecasts?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 332-340.

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