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Are heterogeneous FOMC forecasts consistent with the Fed’s monetary policy?

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  • Fendel, Ralf
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph
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    Abstract

    Yes, they are! We find that although there is a surprisingly high dispersion of individual forecasts and some dissent on the Federal Funds target, the FOMC’s individual behavior is well described by a Taylor-type rule.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 116 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 5-7

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:116:y:2012:i:1:p:5-7

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

    Related research

    Keywords: FOMC; Forecasts; Taylor rule;

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    References

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David H. Romer, 2009. "A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC," NBER Working Papers 15208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6748, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jan-Christoph Rülke & Peter Tillmann, 2010. "Do FOMC Members Herd?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201032, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Meade, Ellen E & Sheets, D Nathan, 2005. "Regional Influences on FOMC Voting Patterns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 661-77, August.
    7. Peter Tillmann, 2010. "Strategic Forecasting on the FOMC," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201017, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    8. Henry W. Chappell, Jr. & Rob Roy McGregor & Todd A. Vermilyea, 2005. "Committee Decisions on Monetary Policy: Evidence from Historical Records of the Federal Open Market Committee," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033305, December.
    9. Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Using FOMC forecasts to forecast the economy," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    11. Ellen E. Meade, 2005. "The FOMC: preferences, voting, and consensus," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 93-101.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ellis, Michael A. & Liu, Dandan, 2013. "Do FOMC forecasts add value to staff forecasts?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 332-340.
    2. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2013. "Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?," Working Paper Series 1579, European Central Bank.
    3. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?," Discussion Papers 77, Aboa Centre for Economics.

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