Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions
AbstractMonetary policy rule parameters are usually estimated at the mean of the interest rate distribution conditional on inflation and an output gap. This is an incomplete description of monetary policy reactions when the parameters are not uniform over the conditional distribution of the interest rate. I use quantile regressions to estimate parameters over the whole conditional distribution of the federal funds rate. Inverse quantile regressions are applied to deal with endogeneity. Real-time data of inflation forecasts and the output gap are used. I find significant and systematic variations of parameters over the conditional interest rate distribution. Testing for structural changes in regression quantiles shows that these parameter variations cannot be explained by preference shifts of the Fed. Asymmetric interest rate responses can rather be related to expansions and recessions and are consistent with a recession avoidance preference of the Fed during the Volcker–Greenspan era.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617
Monetary policy rules; IV quantile regression; Real-time data; Asymmetries; Policy preferences;
Other versions of this item:
- Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2010. "Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions Using Quantile Regressions," MPRA Paper 23857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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