Do FOMC forecasts add value to staff forecasts?
AbstractThis paper compares the economic forecasts of members of the Board of Governors and presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, and then investigates the value of each group's forecasts in supplementing the forecasts of the Board of Governors' staff. We find that the presidents tend to forecast higher inflation and real GDP growth, and lower unemployment than the members of the Board of Governors. We also find that the presidents' real GDP and unemployment rate forecasts add value to the real economy forecasts of the staff, while the governors' inflation forecasts add value to the staff's inflation forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Political Economy.
Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544
Federal Open Market Committee; Forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
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