Potential for significant reductions in dropout rates: Analysis of an entire 3rd grade state cohort
AbstractNineteen percent of 1997–98 North Carolina 3rd graders were observed to drop out of high school. A series of logits predict probabilities of dropping out on determinants such as math and reading test scores, absenteeism, suspension, and retention, at the following grade levels: 3rd, 5th, 8th, and 9th. The same cohort and variables are used to estimate benefits to the 15,737 students admitted to a special program ostensibly for academically and intellectually gifted children. I estimate the probability of admission for schoolmates with similar ability in math and reading to be substantially higher for those from upper income households. Finally, I conclude that extending similar resources to an equal number of high-risk students, as determined by their 3rd grade predicted probabilities, would lead to a 25% reduction in the total cohort dropout rate, and that even dividing existing resources between the two groups could cut dropout rates by half that.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics of Education Review.
Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/econedurev
Educational economics; Human capital; Resource allocation; State and federal aid;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
- I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
- I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
- I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
- H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
- H57 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Procurement
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