High school grades and university performance: A case study

A critical issue facing a number of colleges and universities is how to allocate first year places to incoming students. The decision to admit students is often based on a number of factors, but a key statistic is a student's high school grades. This paper reports on a case study of the subsequent performance at the University of Winnipeg of high school students from 84 Manitoba high schools. By tracking the university performance of students admitted for the years 1997–2002, we are able to estimate the likelihood of success of subsequent students based on their characteristics as well as their high school grades. In doing so, we use a number of alternative estimators including a Least Squares Dummy Variable Model and a Hierarchical Linear Model. The methodology should be of interest to admissions officers at other universities as an input into estimating the subsequent performance of first year students.