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Thrivers and divers: Using non-academic measures to predict college success and failure

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  • Beattie, Graham
  • Laliberté, Jean-William P.
  • Oreopoulos, Philip

Abstract

We introduce a novel method for collecting a comprehensive set of non-academic characteristics for a representative sample of incoming freshman to explore which measures best predict the wide variance in first-year college performance unaccounted for by past grades. We focus our attention on student outliers. Students whose first-year college average is far below expectations (divers) have a high propensity for procrastination – they self-report cramming for exams and wait longer before starting assignments. They are also considerably less conscientious than their peers. Divers are more likely to express superficial goals, hoping to ‘get rich’ quickly. In contrast, students who exceed expectations (thrivers) express more philanthropic goals, are purpose-driven, and are willing to study more hours per week to obtain the higher GPA they expect. A simple seven-variable average of these key non-academic variables does well in predicting college achievement relative to adding more variables or letting a machine-algorithm choose, and improves our ability to predict at-risk students when used jointly with past grades.

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  • Beattie, Graham & Laliberté, Jean-William P. & Oreopoulos, Philip, 2018. "Thrivers and divers: Using non-academic measures to predict college success and failure," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 170-182.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:62:y:2018:i:c:p:170-182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2017.09.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Pugatch, Todd & Wilson, Nicholas, 2018. "Nudging study habits: A field experiment on peer tutoring in higher education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 151-161.
    2. McKenzie, David & Sansone, Dario, 2019. "Predicting entrepreneurial success is hard: Evidence from a business plan competition in Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Beattie, Graham & Laliberté, Jean-William P. & Michaud-Leclerc, Catherine & Oreopoulos, Philip, 2019. "What sets college thrivers and divers apart? A contrast in study habits, attitudes, and mental health," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 50-53.
    4. Valerie Bostwick & Stefanie Fischer & Matthew Lang, 2022. "Semesters or Quarters? The Effect of the Academic Calendar on Postsecondary Student Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 40-80, February.
    5. Oreopoulos, Philip & Petronijevic, Uros & Logel, Christine & Beattie, Graham, 2020. "Improving non-academic student outcomes using online and text-message coaching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 342-360.
    6. Edwards, Rebecca & Gibson, Rachael & Harmon, Colm & Schurer, Stefanie, 2022. "First-in-their-family students at university: Can non-cognitive skills compensate for social origin?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Philip Oreopoulos & Uros Petronijevic, 2019. "The Remarkable Unresponsiveness of College Students to Nudging And What We Can Learn from It," NBER Working Papers 26059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Frauke H. Peter & C. Katharina Spieß & Vaishali Zambre, 2018. "Informing Students about College: An Efficient Way to Decrease the Socio-Economic Gap in Enrollment: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1770, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Saltiel, Fernando, 2020. "Gritting it out: The importance of non-cognitive skills in academic mismatch," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Loris P Fagioli & Rachel Baker & Gabe Avakian Orona, 2020. "The Role of Non-cognitive Variables in Identifying Community College Students in Need of Targeted Supports," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 61(6), pages 725-763, September.
    11. Michelle Pleace & Nicky Nicholls, 2022. "Grit, motivation and university grades," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(1), pages 21-36, March.
    12. Peter, Frauke & Spiess, C. Katharina & Zambre, Vaishali, 2021. "Informing students about college: Increasing enrollment using a behavioral intervention?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 524-549.
    13. Philip Oreopoulos & Uros Petronijevic, 2018. "Student Coaching: How Far Can Technology Go?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(2), pages 299-329.
    14. Christopher R. Dobronyi & Philip Oreopoulos & Uros Petronijevic, 2017. "Goal Setting, Academic Reminders, and College Success: A Large-Scale Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers 23738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. McKenzie, David & Sansone, Dario, 2017. "Man vs. Machine in Predicting Successful Entrepreneurs: Evidence from a Business Plan Competition in Nigeria," CEPR Discussion Papers 12523, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Daniel A. Collier & Dan Fitzpatrick & Chelsea Brehm & Keith Hearit & Andrea Beach, 2020. "Structuring First-Year Retention at a Regional Public Institution: Validating and Refining the Structure of Bowman’s SEM Analysis," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 61(8), pages 917-942, December.
    17. Elif Incekara-Hafalir & Grace H. Y. Lee & Audrey K. L. Siah & Erte Xiao, 2023. "Incentives to Persevere," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(9), pages 5378-5393, September.
    18. Luong, Phuc & Lusher, Lester & Yasenov, Vasil, 2017. "Sleep and Student Success: The Role of Regularity vs. Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 11079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Lusher, Lester & Yasenov, Vasil & Luong, Phuc, 2019. "Does schedule irregularity affect productivity? Evidence from random assignment into college classes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 115-128.
    20. Sovero, Veronica & Buchinsky, Moshe & Baird, Matthew D., 2021. "Playing catch up: A term-level investigation of the racial gap in STEM retention," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    21. Nicholls, Nicky, 2023. "Procrastination and grades: Can students be nudged towards better outcomes?," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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