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Carbon price prediction considering climate change: A text-based framework

Author

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  • Xie, Qiwei
  • Hao, Jingjing
  • Li, Jingyu
  • Zheng, Xiaolong

Abstract

Carbon trading is a vital market mechanism to achieve carbon emission reduction. The accurate prediction of the carbon price is conducive to the effective management and decision-making of the carbon trading market. However, existing research on carbon price forecasting has ignored the impacts of multiple factors on the carbon price, especially climate change. This study proposes a text-based framework for carbon price prediction that considers the impact of climate change. Textual online news is innovatively employed to construct a climate-related variable. The information is combined with other variables affecting the carbon price to forecast the carbon price, using a long short-term memory network and random forest model. The results demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of the carbon price in the Hubei and Guangdong carbon markets is enhanced by adding the textual variable that measures climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Qiwei & Hao, Jingjing & Li, Jingyu & Zheng, Xiaolong, 2022. "Carbon price prediction considering climate change: A text-based framework," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 382-401.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:74:y:2022:i:c:p:382-401
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2022.02.010
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tumala, Mohammed M. & Salisu, Afees & Nmadu, Yaaba B., 2023. "Climate change and fossil fuel prices: A GARCH-MIDAS analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Beibei Hu & Yunhe Cheng, 2023. "Prediction of Regional Carbon Price in China Based on Secondary Decomposition and Nonlinear Error Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-22, May.
    4. Yunhe Cheng & Beibei Hu, 2022. "Forecasting Regional Carbon Prices in China Based on Secondary Decomposition and a Hybrid Kernel-Based Extreme Learning Machine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Li, Jingmiao & Liu, Dehong, 2023. "Carbon price forecasting based on secondary decomposition and feature screening," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    6. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Li, Yameng & Huang, Chia-Yun & Peculea, Adelina Dumitrescu, 2023. "Volatility spillover across Chinese carbon markets: Evidence from quantile connectedness method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

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