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Modeling and explaining the dynamics of European Union Allowance prices at high-frequency

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Author Info

  • Conrad, Christian
  • Rittler, Daniel
  • Rotfuß, Waldemar

Abstract

In this paper we model the adjustment process of European Union Allowance (EUA) prices to the releases of announcements at high-frequency controlling for intraday periodicity, volatility clustering and volatility persistence. We find that the high-frequency EUA price dynamics are very well captured by a fractionally integrated asymmetric power GARCH process. The decisions of the European Commission on second National Allocation Plans have a strong and immediate impact on EUA prices. Further, EUA prices increase in response to better than expected news on the future economic development as well as the current economic activity in Germany and the U.S.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 316-326

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:1:p:316-326

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

Related research

Keywords: EU ETS; EUA; Second NAPs; Announcement effects; Price formation; Long memory;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-232.
  2. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-33, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  3. Bruce Mizrach & Yoichi Otsubo, 2010. "The Market Microstructure of the European Climate Exchange," Departmental Working Papers 201005, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  4. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
  5. Vicente Medina Martínez & Ángel Pardo Tornero & Roberto Pascual, 2012. "The timeline of trading fricions in the European Carbon Market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  6. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer, 2012. "What Moves the European Carbon Market? - Insights from Conditional Jump Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3795, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ma, Shujiao & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yiming, 2014. "Modelling the dynamics of European carbon futures price: A Zipf analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 372-380.
  8. Bildirici, Melike & Ersin, Özgür, 2012. "Nonlinear volatility models in economics: smooth transition and neural network augmented GARCH, APGARCH, FIGARCH and FIAPGARCH models," MPRA Paper 40330, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2012.
  9. Kimmo Ollikka & Piia Aatola & Markku Ollikainen, 2012. "Informational Efficiency of the EU ETS market ? a study of price predictability and profitable trading," Working Papers 28, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  10. Wilfried Rickels & Dennis Görlich & Gerrit Oberst & Sonja Peterson, 2012. "Carbon Price Dynamics – Evidence from Phase II of the European Emission Trading Scheme," Kiel Working Papers 1804, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  11. Kalaitzoglou, Iordanis & Ibrahim, Boulis M., 2013. "Does order flow in the European Carbon Futures Market reveal information?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 604-635.
  12. Rittler, Daniel, 2009. "Price Discovery, Causality and Volatility Spillovers in European Union Allowances Phase II: A High Frequency Analysis," Working Papers 0492, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  13. Peter S. Schmidt & Therese Werner, 2012. "Channeling the final Say in Politics," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/165, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.

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