Future mobility in India from a changing energy mix perspective

The article analyses the transportation sector in India with respect to the changing energy mix. A key objective is to contribute to the policy debate on electrification of the transportation sector. The article attempts to serve multiple sub-objectives. The aggregate size of vehicle fleet in operation is estimated. A vehicle survival model is calibrated using primary data collected from the field. Then, based on the extant literature, certain mobility-related parameters are estimated. Using these data passenger mobility is calculated. The estimate for passenger-km travelled in India obtained from the approach is thus a fairly correct estimate for the same. The values are in sharp contrast to some of the earlier studies. Further, future mobility is projected using an S-shaped curve. The mobility data is used to estimate the current energy demand and the consequential carbon emissions. Lastly, the e-vehicle penetration pathways for the future are modelled based on different scenarios. Based on the assumed scenarios, the future demand for the energy and the expected emissions for different electricity mixes are calculated. The adopted approach thus gives a set of plausible future scenarios of the Indian transportation sector making the study a valuable tool for the policymakers and managers. We conclude that the e-vehicle push may not give the desired environmental outcome unless the energy mix is drastically changed.