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Time-varying arbitrage and dynamic price discovery

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  • Frijns, Bart
  • Zwinkels, Remco C.J.

Abstract

We introduce time-varying measures of price discovery based on underlying profit maximizing behavior by combining the heterogeneous agent modelling literature with the market microstructure literature. We set up a heterogeneous agent model with arbitrageurs and trend chasers (chartists), and allow agents to switch between the strategies conditional on recent forecasting performance. Estimation of the model on Canadian-US cross-listed stocks on high-frequency data shows that there is significant heterogeneity and switching, causing ample variation in the information processing capacity of markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Frijns, Bart & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2018. "Time-varying arbitrage and dynamic price discovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 485-502.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:485-502
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.03.014
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yang Hou & Steven Li & Fenghua Wen, 2021. "Time-varying information share and autoregressive loading factors: evidence from S&P 500 cash and E-mini futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 91-110, July.
    3. Xuechun Zhang & Ruihui Xu & Xue Liu, 2022. "Premiums between Cross‐listed Shares: Determinants and Assessment of Financial Reform Policy Effectiveness," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(3), pages 75-99, May.
    4. Wu, Zhen-Xing & Gau, Yin-Feng & Chen, Yu-Lun, 2023. "Price discovery and triangular arbitrage in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
    6. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market microstructure; Heterogeneous agent models; Time-varying arbitrage; Price discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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