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Prognosen aus dem Internet: weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet

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Author Info
Nikos Askitas
Klaus F. Zimmermann

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Abstract

Überraschend ist im Mai die Arbeitslosigkeit gefallen. Diese positive Entwicklung wird sich im Juni zunächst fortsetzen. Diese Einschätzung basiert auf einem neuen methodischen Konzept, das Google-Aktivitätsdaten für die kurzfristige Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit einsetzt. Gerade in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten sind frühzeitige Prognosen gefragt: Traditionelle Verfahren geben dies mangels rechtzeitig verfügbarer Primärdaten und angesichts rascher struktureller Veränderungen allerdings nicht her. Kurzfristige Politikmaßnahmen verändern darüber hinaus die Datengrundlage. "Weiche" Daten, wie sie das Internet liefert, können in dieser Situation einen Ausweg bieten. Die Erfahrungen im bisherigen Verlauf der Wirtschaftskrise belegen - angesichts schwieriger Rahmenbedingungen - eine insgesamt gute Performance des vorgeschlagenen Konzepts.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 25 ()
Pages: 402-408
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:76-25-1

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Related research
Keywords: Google; Internet; Keyword search; Search engine; Unemployment; Predictions; Forecast evaluation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-30.

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