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Abstract

Die große Wirtschaftskrise hat bisher nur verhaltene Spuren am Arbeitsmarkt hinterlassen. Angesichts der unsicheren weiteren konjunkturellen Entwicklung, der schlechten Auslastung der Arbeitskräfte in den Unternehmen und der hohen Kurzarbeit erwarten viele Beobachter zum Herbst einen dramatischen Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit mit einer baldigen Überschreitung der Vier-Millionen-Grenze. Nach Prognosen unter Verwendung von Google-Internetzugriffsstatistiken bleibt es aber im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahlen in den Sommermonaten August und September aller Voraussicht nach völlig ruhig. Saisonal bedingt geht die Arbeitslosigkeit sogar zurück. Damit verringert sich die Gefahr, dass eine Arbeitslosenzahl von vier Millionen noch in diesem Jahr erreicht werden wird.

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File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/sp17.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Standpunkte with number 17.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izasps:sp17

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Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org

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Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
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Related research

Keywords: Google; Internet; Suchmaschinen; Schlüsselworte; Arbeitslosigkeit; Prognosen; Evaluation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
• C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
• E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
• E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2010-03-06 (All new papers)
• NEP-GER-2010-03-06 (German Papers)

References

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1. Nikos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 899, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
   
   • Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 55(2), pages 107-120.
   • Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 4201, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
   • Nikos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," Research Notes of the German Council for Social and Economic Data 41, German Council for Social and Economic Data (RatSWD).
2. Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Prognosekrise: Warum weniger manchmal mehr ist," IZA Standpunkte 4, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
3. Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Im Angesicht der Krise: US-Präsidentschaftswahlen in transnationaler Sicht," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(44), pages 688-701.
4. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Geben Konjunkturprognosen eine gute Orientierung?," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(13), pages 207-213.
5. Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Stefan Kooths & Vladimir Kuzin & Sebastian Weber & Florian Zinsmeister, 2009. "Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung 2009/2010," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(1/2), pages 2-35.
6. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Prognosen aus dem Internet: Weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet," IZA Standpunkte 13, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
   
   • Nikos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Prognosen aus dem Internet: weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(25), pages 402-408.
7. Nikos Askitas & Klaus Zimmermann, 2009. "Googlemetrie und Arbeitsmarkt," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer, vol. 89(7), pages 489-496, July.
8. Christian Dreger & Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Kerstin Bernoth & Karl Brenke & Stefan Kooths & Vladimir Kuzin & Jörg Weber & Sebastian Weber & Florian Zinsmeister, 2009. "Tendenzen der Wirtschaftsentwicklung 2009/2010," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(31), pages 490-529.

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