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Forecasting tourism demand using search query data: A hybrid modelling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Long Wen
  • Chang Liu

    (University of Nottingham Ningbo China, People’s Republic of China)

  • Haiyan Song

    (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong)

Abstract

Search query data have recently been used to forecast tourism demand. Linear models, particularly autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable models, are often used to assess the predictive power of search query data. However, they are limited by their inability to model non-linearity due to their pre-assumed linear forms. Artificial neural network models could be used to model non-linearity, but mixed results indicate that their application is not appropriate in all situations. Therefore, this study proposes a new hybrid model that combines the linear and non-linear features of component models. The model outperforms other models when forecasting tourist arrivals in Hong Kong from mainland China, thus demonstrating the advantage of adopting hybrid models in forecasting tourism demand with search query data.

Suggested Citation

  • Long Wen & Chang Liu & Haiyan Song, 2019. "Forecasting tourism demand using search query data: A hybrid modelling approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 309-329, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:25:y:2019:i:3:p:309-329
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816618768317
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    Cited by:

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    3. Yang, Yang & Fan, Yawen & Jiang, Lan & Liu, Xiaohui, 2022. "Search query and tourism forecasting during the pandemic: When and where can digital footprints be helpful as predictors?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Md Sabbirul Haque & Md Shahedul Amin & Jonayet Miah, 2023. "Retail Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Study for Multivariate Time Series," Papers 2308.11939, arXiv.org.
    5. Chuan Zhang & Ao‐Yun Hu & Yu‐Xin Tian, 2023. "Daily tourism forecasting through a novel method based on principal component analysis, grey wolf optimizer, and extreme learning machine," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2121-2138, December.
    6. Gang Xie & Xin Li & Yatong Qian & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism demand with KPCA-based web search indexes," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 721-743, June.

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