IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cem/jaecon/v15y2012n2p259-286.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico :

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We estimate a small-scale macro model for the Mexican economy under the New Keynesian (NK) framework and alternative interest rate rules for Mexico. With these results we evaluate the performance of the Bank of Mexico against a set of optimality principles derived in the NK literature. Our system estimation results show that the Bank of Mexico holds a preference for stabilizing not only inflation around target, but also acts to achieve an output gap close to zero. Furthermore, we find that the central bank responds non-linearly to real exchange rate depreciations. We also find that the central bank has actively attempted to neutralize demand and supply shocks through monetary policy that is consistent with the Taylor principle.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolfo Cermeño & F. Alejandro Villagómez & Javier Orellana Polo, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in a small open economy: an application to Mexico :," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 259-286, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:15:y:2012:n:2:p:259-286
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/volume15/cermeno.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
    3. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    5. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    6. Alesina, Alberto & Stella, Andrea, 2010. "The Politics of Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 1001-1054, Elsevier.
    7. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Non‐linearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(3), pages 219-239, November.
    9. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    10. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    12. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    13. Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
    14. Moons, Cindy & Garretsen, Harry & van Aarle, Bas & Fornero, Jorge, 2007. "Monetary policy in the New-Keynesian model: An application to the Euro Area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 879-902.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    16. Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The State of Macro," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 209-228, May.
    18. Rodolfo Cermeño & Bernardo D. Roth & F. Alejandro Villagómez, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and National Saving in Mexico, 1980-2006," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 23(2), pages 281-312.
    19. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    20. Olivera, Julio H G, 1970. "On Passive Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 805-814, Part II J.
    21. Wicksell, Knut, 1907. "The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 17, pages 213-220.
    22. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    23. Ramos Francia Manuel & Torres García Alberto, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Mexico: A Characterization Using the New Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2006-15, Banco de México.
    24. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    25. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    26. Gabriel Rodriguez, 2006. "Stability of Central Bank Preferences, Macroeconomic Shocks, and Efficiency of the Monetary Policy. Empirical Evidence for Canada," Working Papers 0603E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Política Monetaria en México y Reglas de Taylor
      by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario on 2012-11-22 06:07:00
    2. Banxico y la Posible Reducción en su Tasa de Referencia
      by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario on 2013-03-08 08:40:00
    3. Entendiendo la Decisión de Banxico
      by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario on 2014-02-01 06:39:00
    4. Banxico reduce su Tasa a 3%: ¿Medida Correcta, Oportuna y Efectiva?
      by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario on 2014-06-07 19:27:00
    5. Banxico y sus Intervenciones en el Mercado Cambiario
      by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario on 2014-12-09 07:13:00
    6. ¿Cómo Entender las Acciones Monetarias y Fiscales de Hoy?
      by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario on 2016-02-18 00:24:00
    7. ¿Subirá Banxico su tasa de referencia en su próxima reunión?
      by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario on 2016-09-25 06:56:00
    8. ¿Aumentará su Tasa de Referencia Banxico la Próxima Semana?
      by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario on 2017-02-04 08:10:00
    9. Banxico aumentó su tasa de referencia ¿Está pecando de "halcón"? o hay algo más...
      by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario on 2017-02-10 23:40:00
    10. Banxico mantiene su posición de "halcón" (con un disidente)
      by Alejandro Villagomez in Tintero Económico Diario on 2017-06-23 22:11:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Arnoldo Lopez-Marmolejo, 2019. "Mexico¡¯s Monetary Policy Communication and Money Markets," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 81-97, February.
    2. Hummaira Jabeen, 2022. "Monetary Policy Shock Transmission in Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(4), pages 379-390, December.
    3. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Arnoldo Lopez Marmolejo, 2015. "Mexico’s monetary policy communication and money markets," Working Papers 1515, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    5. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Enestor Dos Santos, 2015. "Follow what I do and also what I say: monetary policy impact on Brazil’s financial markets," Working Papers 1512, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Rodolfo Cermeño & Julio Mamani-Palacios, 2013. "Regímenes Monetarios y Volatilidad del Tipo de Cambio Real: El Caso Peruano, 1995-2012," Working papers DTE 565, CIDE, División de Economía.
    7. Villarreal, Francisco G., 2014. "Monetary Policy and Inequality in Mexico," MPRA Paper 57074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bui Thanh Trung, 2022. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Emerging Economy: The Role of Monetary Condition Index," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(6), pages 499-522, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alejandro Villagómez & Juan Ignacio Hernández, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy: An Application to Mexico," Working papers DTE 454, CIDE, División de Economía.
    2. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    3. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    4. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    5. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 928-956, September.
    6. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2009. "Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Data Base," NBER Working Papers 14849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Steinsson, Jon, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1425-1456, October.
    8. Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2011. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields And Methods From Past To Future," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 769-800, September.
    9. Francisco Rosende, 2002. "La Nueva Síntesis Keynesiana: Análisis e Implicancias de Política Monetaria," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(117), pages 203-233.
    10. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    12. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    13. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    14. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Budgetary policies in a DSGE model with finite horizons," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 111-130.
    15. Galí, Jordi, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2008. "Regime shifts and the stability of backward-looking Phillips curves in open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 40-53, February.
    17. Jensen, Christian, 2014. "Discretionary policy exploiting learning in a sticky-information model of the inflation-output trade-off: Bridging the gap to commitment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 150-158.
    18. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," IMF Working Papers 2004/195, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Patrick Minford & David Peel, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy: is price‐level targeting the next step?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 650-667, November.
    20. Alfred Guender & Yu Xie, 2007. "Is there an exchange rate channel in the forward-looking Phillips curve? A theoretical and empirical investigation," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 5-28.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor Rule; New Keynesian; monetary policy; interest rate rules; small open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:15:y:2012:n:2:p:259-286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valeria Dowding (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.