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Fiscal Policy and National Saving in Mexico, 1980-2006

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  • Alejandro Villagómez

    ()
    (Division of Economics, CIDE)

  • Bernardo Roth Rivero

Abstract

This paper uses structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) to characterize the dynamic impact of fiscal policy on national saving. SVAR´s have extensively been used to characterize the impact of monetary policy on the economy but have not been applied as much to analyzing fiscal policy. This paper focuses on the impact of fiscal policy on national saving and the data used is adjusted for inflation and cyclical effects, rather than using traditional estimations by official entities. Our empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy has an important economic impact on national saving, any impact on private saving and a negative but non-significant effect on the output gap.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIDE, Division de Economia in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number DTE 387.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte387

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Postal: Carretera México Toluca 3655 Lomas Sta. Fe, México D.F.
Phone: 01 800 021 2433
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Web page: http://www.cide.edu/div_economia.htm
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Keywords: Fiscal Policy; National Saving; Mexico;

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  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  2. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Perron, P., 1986. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach," Cahiers de recherche 8650, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Corbo, Vittorio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "Public policies and saving in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 574, The World Bank.
  5. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Do Economies Converge? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 384-88, August.
  7. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-15, August.
  8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  9. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Gramlich, Edward M, 1989. "Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 23-35, Spring.
  11. Eggerstedt, Harald & Brideau Hall, Rebecca & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1993. "Measuring capital flight : a case study of Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1121, The World Bank.
  12. Nicolau, Jo o, 2002. "Stationary Processes That Look Like Random Walks The Bounded Random Walk Process In Discrete And Continuous Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 99-118, February.
  13. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank.
  14. Marc Hayford, 2005. "Fiscal policy and national saving," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 981-992.
  15. J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May.
  16. Khalid, Ahmed M., 1996. "Ricardian equivalence: Empirical evidence from developing economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 413-432, December.
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