Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?

Contents:

Author Info

  • MAGNUS GUSTAVSSON
  • P�R �STERHOLM

Abstract

This paper investigates if conclusions regarding labour market hysteresis differ depending on whether employment or unemployment rates are studied. Applying a range of unit-root tests to monthly data from Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Sweden, the UK and the USA, we find results for employment rates that contrast those based on unemployment rates. In particular, rather than the mixed evidence for hysteresis found using unemployment rates, employment rates result in unequivocal evidence of hysteresis in Australia, Canada and the USA. These findings cast doubt on previous conclusions in the literature. Copyright © 2007 The Economic Society of Australia.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=ecor&volume=83&issue=261&year=2007&part=null
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 83 (2007)
Issue (Month): 261 (06)
Pages: 159-173

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:83:y:2007:i:261:p:159-173

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Central Council Administration, L.P.O. Box 2161, Hawthorn VIC 3122
Phone: 61 3 9497 4140
Fax: 61 3 9497 4140
Email:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0013-0249
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0013-0249

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Roed, Knut, 1997. " Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 389-418, December.
  2. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1992. "Loss of Skill during Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-91, November.
  3. Nicolau, Jo o, 2002. "Stationary Processes That Look Like Random Walks The Bounded Random Walk Process In Discrete And Continuous Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 99-118, February.
  4. Burda, Michael C, 1990. "Some Evidence on the Membership Hysteresis Hypothesis in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 143-61.
  5. Gottfries, Nils & Horn, Henrik, 1987. "Wage Formation and the Persistence of Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388), pages 877-84, December.
  6. Martin Feldstein & David T. Ellwood, 1979. "Teenage Unemployment: What is the Problem?," NBER Working Papers 0393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Andrea Brandolini & Piero Cipollone & Eliana Viviano, 2004. "Does the ILO Definition Capture All Unemployment?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area 529, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Lawrence F. Katz & Claudia Goldin, 2000. "Career and Marriage in the Age of the Pill," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 461-465, May.
  9. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. McCausland, W David, 1998. "Employment Hysteresis in an Overlapping-Generations Insider-Outsider Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 394-403, December.
  11. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  12. Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Working Paper Series, Research Institute of Industrial Economics 481, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  13. Chinhui Juhn & Dae Il Kim, 1995. "The Effects of Rising Female Labor Supply on Male Wages," NBER Working Papers 5236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Chinhui Juhn & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 1991. "Why Has the Natural Rate of Unemployment Increased over Time?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 75-142.
  15. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis And The European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. In Choi & Bhum Suk Chung, 1995. "Sampling frequency and the power of tests for a unit root: A simulation study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 131-136, August.
  17. Melvin Stephens Jr., 2001. "Worker Displacement and the Added Worker Effect," NBER Working Papers 8260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Russell Smyth, 2003. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Australian States and Territories: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root Tests," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(2), pages 181-192.
  19. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  20. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
  21. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1997. "Unemployment and Nonemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 295-300, May.
  22. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  23. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
  24. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, October.
  25. Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2000. "Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 215-222, February.
  26. Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2004. "Labor Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026203316x, December.
  27. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. n/a, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  29. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  30. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  31. Chinhui Juhn & Kevin Murphy & Robert Topel, 2002. "Current Unemployment, Historically Contemplated," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 79-136.
  32. Nunes, Luis C. & Newbold, Paul & Chung-Ming Kuan, 1996. "Spurious number of breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 175-178, February.
  33. Benati, Luca, 2001. "Some empirical evidence on the 'discouraged worker' effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 387-395, March.
  34. Topel, Robert H, 1994. "Regional Labor Markets and the Determinants of Wage Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 17-22, May.
  35. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  36. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Do Economies Converge? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 384-88, August.
  37. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-58, December.
  38. Gustavsson, Magnus & Osterholm, Par, 2006. "The informational value of unemployment statistics: A note on the time series properties of participation rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 428-433, September.
  39. Chinhui Juhn & Sandra E. Black, 2000. "The Rise of Female Professionals: Are Women Responding to Skill Demand?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 450-455, May.
  40. Elisa-Rose Birch, 2005. "Studies of the Labour Supply of Australian Women: What Have We Learned?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(252), pages 65-84, 03.
  41. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Sibel Cengiz & Afsin Sahin, 2014. "Modelling nonlinear behavior of labor force participation rate by STAR: An application for Turkey," International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research (IJESAR), Technological Educational Institute (TEI) of Kavala, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 113-127, April.
  2. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.
  3. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Tansel, Aysit, 2011. "International Labour Force Participation Rates by Gender: Unit Root or Structural Breaks?," IZA Discussion Papers 6063, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Kula, Ferit & Aslan, Alper, 2008. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: One, the other, or both?," MPRA Paper 14054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Magnus Gustavsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 779-792, June.
  6. Ferit KULA & Alper ASLAN, 2014. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Turkey: Does Education Matter?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 35-39.
  7. Uwe Hassler & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment Rates? A Comparison between Germany and the US," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 229(2-3), pages 119-129, June.
  8. Gustavsson, Magnus & Osterholm, Par, 2006. "The informational value of unemployment statistics: A note on the time series properties of participation rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 428-433, September.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:83:y:2007:i:261:p:159-173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.