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The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?

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  • Magnus Gustavsson

    ()

  • Pär Österholm

    ()

Abstract

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-009-0290-x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 779-792

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:779-792

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Related research

Keywords: Unit root; Persistence; Labour market;

References

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  1. Alan A. Carruth & Mark A. Hooker & Andrew J. Oswald, 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 621-628, November.
  2. Philip Arestis & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2000. "OECD unemployment: structural breaks and stationarity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 399-403.
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jorion, Philippe & Sweeney, Richard J., 1996. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence and implications for forecasting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 535-550, August.
  5. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2004. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 413-417, September.
  6. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1997. "Unemployment and Nonemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 295-300, May.
  7. A. J. Hagger & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(246), pages 324-335, 09.
  8. Golan, Amos & Perloff, Jeffrey M., 2002. "Superior Forecasts of the U.S. Unemployment Rate Using a Nonparametric Method," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2bw559zk, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  10. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. "Real Exchange-Rate Prediction over Short Horizons," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 401-13, August.
  11. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Hagger, A J, 2000. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Australia: Estimates from a Structural VAR," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 121-37, June.
  12. Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-43, April.
  13. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  14. Gottfries, Nils & Horn, Henrik, 1987. "Wage Formation and the Persistence of Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388), pages 877-84, December.
  15. Roed, Knut, 1997. " Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 389-418, December.
  16. Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee & Chien-Chung Nieh & Ching-Chun Wei, 2005. "An empirical note on testing hysteresis in unemployment for ten European countries: panel SURADF approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 881-886.
  17. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
  18. Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2004. "Labor Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026203316x, January.
  19. Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2006. "Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?," Working Paper Series 2006:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Niels Framroze Møller, 2013. "Understanding Unemployment Hysteresis: A system-based econometric approach to changing equilibria and slow adjustment," Discussion Papers 13-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  2. Pär Österholm, 2010. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.

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