Understanding Unemployment Hysteresis: A system-based econometric approach to changing equilibria and slow adjustment
AbstractWhat explains the persistence of unemployment? The literature on hysteresis, which is based on unit root testing in autoregressive models, consists of a vast number of univariate studies, i.e. that analyze unemployment series in isolation, but few multivariate analyses that focus on the sources of hysteresis. As a result, this question remains largely unanswered. This paper presents a multivariate econometric framework for analyzing hysteresis, which allows one to test different hypotheses about non-stationarity of unemployment against one another. For example, whether this is due to a persistently changing equilibrium, slow adjustment towards the equilibrium (persistent ?uctuations), or perhaps even a combination of the two. Different hypotheses of slow adjustment, as implied by theories of hysteresis, nominal rigidities or labor hoarding can also be compared. A small illustrative application to UK quarterly data on prices, wages, output, unemployment and crude oil prices, suggests that, for the period 1988 up to the onset of the financial crisis, the non-stationarity of UK unemployment cannot be explained as a result of slow adjustment, including sluggish wage formation as emphasized by the hysteresis theories. Instead, it is the equilibrium that has evolved persistently as a consequence of exogenous oil prices shifting the price setting relation (in the unemployment-real wage space) in a non-stationary manner.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 13-06.
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 28 Aug 2013
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Hysteresis; Unemployment Hysteresis; Persistence; Cointegration; Structural VAR; Equilibrium unemployment; Multivariate Time series analysis; Price- and Wage Setting; Wage formation; Crude oil prices; UK unemployment;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2013-09-06 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ENE-2013-09-06 (Energy Economics)
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