Understanding Unemployment Hysteresis: A system-based econometric approach to changing equilibria and slow adjustment
AbstractWhat explains the persistence of unemployment? The literature on hysteresis, which is based on unit root testing in autoregressive models, consists of a vast number of univariate studies, i.e. that analyze unemployment series in isolation, but few multivariate analyses that focus on the sources of hysteresis. As a result, this question remains largely unanswered. This paper presents a multivariate econometric framework for analyzing hysteresis, which allows one to test different hypotheses about non-stationarity of unemployment against one another. For example, whether this is due to a persistently changing equilibrium, slow adjustment towards the equilibrium (persistent ?uctuations), or perhaps even a combination of the two. Different hypotheses of slow adjustment, as implied by theories of hysteresis, nominal rigidities or labor hoarding can also be compared. A small illustrative application to UK quarterly data on prices, wages, output, unemployment and crude oil prices, suggests that, for the period 1988 up to the onset of the financial crisis, the non-stationarity of UK unemployment cannot be explained as a result of slow adjustment, including sluggish wage formation as emphasized by the hysteresis theories. Instead, it is the equilibrium that has evolved persistently as a consequence of exogenous oil prices shifting the price setting relation (in the unemployment-real wage space) in a non-stationary manner.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 13-06.
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 28 Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, DK-1353 Copenhagen K., Denmark
Phone: (+45) 35 32 30 10
Fax: +45 35 32 30 00
Web page: http://www.econ.ku.dk
More information through EDIRC
Hysteresis; Unemployment Hysteresis; Persistence; Cointegration; Structural VAR; Equilibrium unemployment; Multivariate Time series analysis; Price- and Wage Setting; Wage formation; Crude oil prices; UK unemployment;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2013-09-06 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ENE-2013-09-06 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruno Amable & Ken Mayhew, 2011. "Unemployment in the OECD," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 207-220.
- Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
- Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1986. "Wage Setting, Unemployment, and Insider-Outsider Relations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 235-39, May.
- Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
- Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2004. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 413-417, September.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986.
"Hysteresis And The European Unemployment Problem,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Holden, Steinar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2002. " Measuring Structural Unemployment: NAWRU Estimates in the Nordic Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 87-104.
- Leif Danziger, 2007.
"Adjustment Costs, Inventories and Output,"
Kiel Working Papers
1340, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1997. "Common trends and hysteresis in Scandinavian unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1781-1816, December.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1983. "Capital as a commitment: Strategic investment to deter mobility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 227-250, December.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Torben Andersen, 2010. "Unemployment Persistence," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(1), pages 23-28, 04.
- Davidson, James & Hall, Stephen, 1991. "Cointegration in Recursive Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 239-51, March.
- Roed, Knut, 1997. " Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 389-418, December.
- David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2006.
"European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas,"
CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 5-59, 01.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2005. "European Unemployment: The Evolution of Facts and Ideas," NBER Working Papers 11750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anders Warne & Henrik Hansen, 2001. "The cause of Danish unemployment: Demand or supply shocks?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 461-486.
- Jun-De Lee & Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2009. "Hysteresis In Unemployment Revisited: Evidence From Panel Lm Unit Root Tests With Heterogeneous Structural Breaks," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 325-334, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Hoffmann).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.