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Fiscal Policy and National Saving in Mexico, 1980-2006

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Author Info
Rodolfo Cermeño (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A. C.)
Bernardo D. Roth (Protego Evercore)
F. Alejandro Villagómez (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A. C., Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México)

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Abstract

This paper uses structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models to characterize the dynamic impact of fiscal policy on national saving. SVARs have extensively been used in case of monetary policy. Data adjusted for inflation, capital flight, the value loss of debt and cyclical effects, is used rather than traditional measures. Our results suggest that fiscal policy that increases the structural surplus has a positive impact on national saving, some negative impact on private savings in shorter horizons but any significant e_ect over longer horizons, and a negative effect on the output gap.

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File URL: http://revistas.colmex.mx/revistas/12/art_12_1190_9144.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 281-312
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Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:23:y:2008:i:2:p:281-312

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Related research
Keywords: fiscal policy; national saving; private saving;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E29 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Other
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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    Other versions:
  2. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Do Economies Converge? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 384-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-15, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gramlich, Edward M, 1989. "Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 23-35, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Marc D. Hayford, 2005. "Fiscal policy and national saving," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 981-992, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Khalid, Ahmed M., 1996. "Ricardian equivalence: Empirical evidence from developing economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 413-432, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Corbo, Vittorio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "Public policies and saving in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 89-115, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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