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Fiscal Policy and National Saving in Mexico, 1980-2006

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  • Rodolfo Cermeño

    (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A. C.)

  • Bernardo D. Roth

    (Protego Evercore)

  • F. Alejandro Villagómez

    (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A. C.
    Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México)

Abstract

This paper uses structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models to characterize the dynamic impact of fiscal policy on national saving. SVARs have extensively been used in case of monetary policy. Data adjusted for inflation, capital flight, the value loss of debt and cyclical effects, is used rather than traditional measures. Our results suggest that fiscal policy that increases the structural surplus has a positive impact on national saving, some negative impact on private savings in shorter horizons but any significant e_ect over longer horizons, and a negative effect on the output gap.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 281-312

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Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:23:y:2008:i:2:p:281-312

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Web page: http://www.colmex.mx/centros/cee/
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Keywords: fiscal policy; national saving; private saving;

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References

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  1. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eggerstedt, Harald & Hall, Rebecca Brideau & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1995. "Measuring capital flight: A case study of Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 211-232, February.
  3. Marc Hayford, 2005. "Fiscal policy and national saving," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 981-992.
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
  5. Corbo, Vittorio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "Public policies and saving in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 89-115, July.
  6. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Gramlich, Edward M, 1989. "Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 23-35, Spring.
  10. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Do Economies Converge? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 384-88, August.
  11. Gil-Diaz, Francisco & Carstens, Agustin, 1996. "One Year of Solitude: Some Pilgrim Tales about Mexico's 1994-1995 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 164-69, May.
  12. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  13. J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May.
  14. Khalid, Ahmed M., 1996. "Ricardian equivalence: Empirical evidence from developing economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 413-432, December.
  15. Nicolau, Jo o, 2002. "Stationary Processes That Look Like Random Walks The Bounded Random Walk Process In Discrete And Continuous Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 99-118, February.
  16. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-15, August.
  17. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank.
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