Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme
AbstractAlthough expensive, monitoring is the most efficient mean to repress a criminal activity. This is typically included in economic models of crime thanks to a probability of detection, and only based on risk aversion. According to recent results in psychology literature, the perception of this probability can however be specific to each individual. This paper experimentally investigates the existence of such errors in probabilities forecasts, often labelled ?optimism bias?. The experiment relies on choices between a no risky (legal) activity and an illegal activity ? randomly penalized by a fine. The experimental treatments assess whether the way the monitoring policy is announced can affect the optimism bias. The results provide a guide into costless devices to undermine illegal activities, grounded on an idiosyncratic perception of risk. Classification JEL : C91, C92, D82, H21, H26
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.
Volume (Year): 58 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
- C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
- H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion
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- Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2005. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects: New Data without Order Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 902-912, June.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, .
"Learning To Be Overconfident,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
5-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Fang, Hanming & Moscarini, Giuseppe, 2005.
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 749-777, May.
- Nicolas Jacquemet & Yannick Gabuthy, 2012. "Analyse économique du droit et méthode expérimentale," Working Papers halshs-00746617, HAL.
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