Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme
AbstractAlthough expensive, monitoring is the most efficient mean to repress a criminal activity. This is typically included in economic models of crime thanks to a probability of detection, and only based on risk aversion. According to recent results in psychology literature, the perception of this probability can however be specific to each individual. This paper experimentally investigates the existence of such errors in probabilities forecasts, often labelled ?optimism bias?. The experiment relies on choices between a no risky (legal) activity and an illegal activity ? randomly penalized by a fine. The experimental treatments assess whether the way the monitoring policy is announced can affect the optimism bias. The results provide a guide into costless devices to undermine illegal activities, grounded on an idiosyncratic perception of risk. Classification JEL : C91, C92, D82, H21, H26
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.
Volume (Year): 58 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique.htm
Other versions of this item:
- Nicolas Jacquemet & Jean-Louis Rullière & Isabelle Vialle, 2007. "Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00259460, HAL.
- C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
- C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
- H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2005. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects: New Data without Order Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 902-912, June.
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