A proper test of overconfidence
AbstractIn this paper we conduct two proper tests of overconfidence. We reject the hypothesis "the data cannot be generated by a rational model" in both experiments.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11954.
Date of creation: 05 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Overconfidence; Better than Average; Experimental Economics; Irrationality; Signalling Models;
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-12-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2008-12-14 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-EXP-2008-12-14 (Experimental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roland Bénabou & Jean Tirole, 2002. "Self-Confidence And Personal Motivation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 871-915, August.
- Botond Köszegi, 2006. "Ego Utility, Overconfidence, and Task Choice," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 673-707, 06.
- Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, 04.
- Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
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