Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Joy leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Remedy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Koellinger, Ph.D.
  • Treffers, T.

Abstract

Overconfidence has been identified as a source of suboptimal decision making in many real- life domains, and it often has far-reaching consequences. Here, we demonstrate a causal mechanism that leads to overconfidence and show a simple, effective remedy for it in an incentive-compatible experimental study. We show that joy induces overconfidence if the reason for joy (an unexpected gift) is unrelated to the judgment task and if participants were not made specifically aware of our mood manipulation. In contrast, we observed well- calibrated judgments among participants in a control group who were in their resting mood. Furthermore, we found well-calibrated judgments among participants who received the joyful mood induction together with questions that forced them to reflect on their current mood, its cause, and the (ir)relevance of its cause to our judgment tasks. Our findings suggest that being aware of one’s positive mood and the reason for that mood can be an effective short- term remedy for overconfidence.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/30805/ERS-2012-001-STR-update_20140224.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam in its series ERIM Report Series Research in Management with number ERS-2012-001-STR.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 03 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:30805

Contact details of provider:
Postal: RSM Erasmus University & Erasmus School of Economics, PoBox 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam
Phone: 31-10-408 1182
Fax: 31-10-408 9020
Email:
Web page: http://www.erim.eur.nl/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: joy; judgement; mood; overconfidence; emotion;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kamstra, M.J. & Kramer, L.A. & Levi, M.D., 1998. "Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight-Savings Anomaly," Discussion Papers dp98-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  2. David Cesarini & Magnus Johannesson & Paul Lichtenstein & Björn Wallace, 2009. "Heritability of Overconfidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 617-627, 04-05.
  3. Biais, Bruno & Hilton, Denis & Mazurier, Karine & Pouget, Sébastien, 2004. "Judgmental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," IDEI Working Papers 259, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  4. Barton H. Hamilton, 2000. "Does Entrepreneurship Pay? An Empirical Analysis of the Returns to Self-Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 604-631, June.
  5. Bengtsson, Claes & Persson, Mats & Willenhag, Peter, 2005. "Gender and overconfidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 199-203, February.
  6. Thomas Astebro, 2003. "The Return to Independent Invention: Evidence of Unrealistic Optimism, Risk Seeking or Skewness Loving?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 226-239, January.
  7. Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Guo Ying Luo, 2005. "An Experimental Test of the Impact of Overconfidence and Gender on Trading Activity," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-07, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  8. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
  9. Cesarini, David & Sandewall, Örjan & Johannesson, Magnus, 2003. "Confidence Interval Estimation Tasks and the Economics of Overconfidence," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 535, Stockholm School of Economics.
  10. Ben Greiner, 2004. "The Online Recruitment System ORSEE - A Guide for the Organization of Experiments in Economics," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2003-10, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  11. Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, 04.
  12. Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2009. "Betting on own knowledge: Experimental test of overconfidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 39-49, February.
  13. Koellinger, Philipp & Minniti, Maria & Schade, Christian, 2007. ""I think I can, I think I can": Overconfidence and entrepreneurial behavior," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 502-527, August.
  14. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2005. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects: New Data without Order Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 902-912, June.
  15. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
  16. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-45, December.
  17. Smith, Vernon L, 1982. "Microeconomic Systems as an Experimental Science," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 923-55, December.
  18. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
  19. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
  20. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
  21. D. Urbig & J. Stauf & G.U. Weitzel, 2009. "What is your level of overconfidence? A strictly incentive compatible measurement of absolute and relative overconfidence," Working Papers 09-20, Utrecht School of Economics.
  22. Kirchler, Erich & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2002. " Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 65-85, July.
  23. Olivier Chanel & Graciela Chichilnisky, 2009. "The influence of fear in decisions: Experimental evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 271-298, December.
  24. Natalia Karelaia & Robin Hogarth, 2010. "The attraction of uncertainty: Interactions between skill and levels of uncertainty in market-entry games," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 141-166, October.
  25. Noll, Roger G, 1996. "The Complex Politics of Catastrophe Economics," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 12(2-3), pages 141-46, May.
  26. Golec, Joseph & Tamarkin, Maurry, 1995. "Do Bettors Prefer Long Shots because They Are Risk-Lovers, or Are They Just Overconfident?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 51-64, July.
  27. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, And Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:30805. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RePub).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.