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Testing Wage And Price Phillips Curves For The United States

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Author Info
Peter Flaschel
Göran Kauermann
Willi Semmler

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Abstract

This paper demonstrates how the labour and product markets interact in determining as outcome a generalized reduced-form price Phillips curve. For the labour market we consider a wage Phillips curve and for the product market a price Phillips curve. We estimate separately the wage and price Phillips curves for the USA, using ordinary least squares, non-parametric estimation and three-stage least squares techniques. The finding is that wages are always more flexible than prices with respect to their respective demand pressure and that price inflation responds somewhat more to a medium-run cost pressure than does wage inflation. The implications for macroeconomic stability are demonstrated. We also show-as a link between product and labour markets-that employment is related to output as Okun's law states. In comparing linear and non-linear estimates of the wage and price Phillips curves we find furthermore that for some relationships non-linearities are important while not for others. Although overall the non-linear estimates tend to confirm our linear estimates, non-linearities in some relationships of the Phillips curve are important as well. Copyright © 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Metroeconomica.

Volume (Year): 58 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 550-581
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Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:58:y:2007:i:4:p:550-581

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0026-1386

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  1. Toichiro Asada & Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage Price Spiral. A Baseline Disequilibrium Approach," Macroeconomics 0409001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ekkehard Ernst & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves," IMK Working Paper 04-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gabriele R. & Fagiolo G. & Dosi G., 2004. "Towards an Evolutionary Interpretation of Aggregate Labor Market Regularities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 84, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. C. Chiarella & P. Chen, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral:Estimating a Baseline Disequilibrium Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 149, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Toichiro Asada & Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral: A Baseline Disequilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 139, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Göran Kauermann, 2006. "Nonparametric models and their estimation," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 137-152, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Toichiro Asada & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Christian R. Proaño, 2007. "Keynesian AD-AS, Quo Vadis?," Working Paper Series 151, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Keynesian Macrodynamics and the Phillips Curve. An Estimated Baseline Macromodel for the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 147, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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