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Nonlinear Phillips Curves, Complex Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Keynesian Macro Model

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Abstract

In the framework of a Keynesian monetary macro model we study implications of kinked Phillips curves and alternative monetary policy rules. As alternative monetary policy rules we consider monetary growth targeting and interest rate targeting (the Taylor rule). Our monetary macro model exhibits: asset market clearing, disequilibrium in product and labor markets, sluggish price and quantity adjustments, two Phillips-Curves for wage and price dynamics, and a combination of medium-run adaptive and short-run forward looking expectations. Simulations of the model with our estimated parameters reveal global instability of its steady state. We show that monetary policy can stabilize the dynamics to some extent and that, in addition, an institutionally given kink in the money wage Phillips-Curve (downwardly rigid wages) represents a powerful mechanism for getting bounded, more or less irregular fluctuations in the place of purely explosive ones. The resulting fluctuations can be reduced in their size by choosing the parameters of monetary policy within a certain corridor, the exact position of which may however be very uncertain.

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File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp120.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Working Paper Series with number 120.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2002
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Publication status: Published as: Chiarella, C., Flaschel, P., Gong, G. and Semmler, E., 2003, "Nonlinear Phillips Curves, Complex Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Keynesian Macro Model", Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 18(3), 613-634.
Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:120

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Related research

Keywords: feedback channels; instability; monetary policy; wage floors; fluctuating growth; complex dynamics;

References

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  1. Jordi Galí, 2000. "The return of the Phillips curve and other recent developments in business cycle theory," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10.
  2. Franke, Reiner, 1996. "A Metzlerian model of inventory growth cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 243-262, June.
  3. Franke, Reiner & Lux, Thomas, 1993. " Adaptive Expectations and Perfect Foresight in a Nonlinear Metzlerian Model of the Inventory Cycle," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(3), pages 355-63.
  4. Victoria C. Hoogenveen & Simon K. Kuipers, 2000. "The long-run effects of low inflation rates," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(214), pages 267-285.
  5. Victoria C. Hoogenveen & Simon K. Kuipers, 2000. "The long-run effects of low inflation rates," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(214), pages 267-285.
  6. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "Monetary policy and multiple equilibria," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Wells, Graeme, 2003. "The Dynamics Of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 473-475, June.
  8. Flaschel, Peter & Gong, Gang & Semmler, Willi, 2001. "A Keynesian macroeconometric framework for the analysis of monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 101-136, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June.
  2. Stéphane Hallegatte & Michael Ghil, 2007. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Economic Response to Exogenous Shocks," Working Papers 2007.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. repec:hal:ciredw:halshs-00008712 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Peiyuan Zhu, 2003. "The Structure of Keynesian Macrodynamics: A Framework for Future Research," Working Paper Series 129, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  5. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael & Dumas, Patrice & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2008. "Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-77, July.
  6. Jian Gao & Gang Gong & Xue-Zhong He, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regime: Proposal for a Small and Less Developed Economy," Research Paper Series 199, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  7. Toichiro Asada & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Keynes-Metzler-Goodwin Model Building: The Closed Economy," Working Paper Series 124, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  8. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00008712 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2006. "The Independent Monetary Policy under the Fixed Exchange Regime," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 517, Society for Computational Economics.

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