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Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage–Price Spiral: Identifying Downward Rigidities

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  • Pu Chen

    ()

  • Peter Flaschel

Abstract

We develop a constrained bivariate switching model to explore empirically the behavior of wage and price Phillips-curves for high- and low-inflation regimes. Using this switching regression technique with a structural simultaneous equations model of Phillips curves, we identify significant lower floors for wage and price inflation. We interpret these lower floors as the relevant downward rigidity for wages and prices. Such floors imply that the adverse real-wage adjustment mechanism that can be identified in the high-inflation regime may disappear in the low-inflation regime, where money-wage inflation and price inflation, and thus real-wage movements, may become rigid. Consequently, the economy may be stabilized then, but trapped in a long period of stagnation in such a low-inflation situation. Such properties of kinked wage and price Phillips-curves are thus important and could also be of help to break another important destabilizing feedback channel, the Fisher debt deflation mechanism, according to which economies, in which highly indebted firms are unable to prevent price deflation, will experience severe crisis or even economic breakdown if the resulting deflationary spiral cannot be stopped. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 115-142

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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:25:y:2005:i:1:p:115-142

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248
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Keywords: adverse real-wage adjustments; constrained switching models; downward wage and price rigidities; economic stagnation; wage and price Phillips-curves;

References

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  1. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Bart Turtelboom & Peter Isard & Eswar Prasad, 1998. "Multimod Mark III," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund.
  2. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
  3. Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Wells, Graeme, 2003. "The Dynamics Of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 473-475, June.
  4. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
  5. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
  6. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1980. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Working Papers 378, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  7. Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2005. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral: Analyzing and Estimating a Baseline Disequilibrium Model," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 6 - 49, August.
  8. C. Chiarella & P. Chen, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral:Estimating a Baseline Disequilibrium Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 149, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Wage and Price Phillips Curves," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 128, Royal Economic Society.
  10. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February.
  11. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
  12. Tambakis Demosthenes N., 1999. "Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Asymmetric Loss," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-17, January.
  13. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
  14. W. Semmler & P. Chen & C. Chiarella, 2005. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral:Estimating and Analyzing a Baseline Disequilibrium Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 211, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Alfonso Arpaia & Karl Pichelmann, 2007. "Nominal and real wage flexibility in EMU," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 299-328, November.
  2. Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Hing Hung, 2006. "Keynesian Disequilibrium Dynamics: Convergence, Roads to Instability and the Emergence of Complex Business Fluctuations," Working Paper Series 146, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  3. Chen Pu & Hsiao Chihying, 2005. "What Happens to Japan if China Catches Cold? - A causal analysis of the Chinese growth and the Japanese growth," Econometrics 0510005, EconWPA.
  4. Carl Chiarella & Hing Hung & Peter Flaschel, 2010. "Keynesian Macrodynamics: Convergence, Roads to Instability and the Emergence of Complex Business Fluctuations," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 236-262, November.
  5. Peter Flaschel & Göran Kauermann & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Testing Wage And Price Phillips Curves For The United States," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 550-581, November.
  6. Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1041-1072, November.

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