IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecj/ac2003/128.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wage and Price Phillips Curves

Author

Listed:
  • Krolzig, Hans-Martin

    (University of Oxford)

  • Peter Flaschel

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a small Keynesian model of economic growth which is centered around two advanced types of Phillips curves, one for money wages and one for prices, both being augmented by perfect myopic foresight and supplemented by a measure of the medium-term inflationary climate updated in an adaptive fashion. The model contains two potentially destabilizing feedback chains, the so-called Mundell and Rose-effects. We estimate parsimonious and congruent Phillips curves for money wages and prices in the US over the past five decades. Using the parameters of the empirical Phillips curves, we show that the growth path of the private sector of the model economy is likely to be surrounded by centrifugal forces. Convergence to this growth path can be generated in two ways: a Blanchard-Katz-type error-correction mechanism in the money-wage Phillips curve or a modified Taylor rule that is augmented by a term, which transmits increases in the wage share (real unit labor costs) to increases in the nominal rate of interest. Thus the model is characterized by local instability of the wage-price spiral, which however can be tamed by appropriate wage or monetary policies. Our empirical analysis finds the error-correction mechanism being ineffective in both Phillips curves suggesting that the stability of the post-war US macroeconomy originates from the stabilizing role of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Wage and Price Phillips Curves," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 128, Royal Economic Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.org/res2003/Krolzig.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Peiyuan Zhu, 2003. "The Structure of Keynesian Macrodynamics: A Framework for Future Research," Working Paper Series 129, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Pu Chen & Peter Flaschel, 2005. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage–Price Spiral: Identifying Downward Rigidities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 115-142, February.
    3. T. Asada & P. Chen, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the wage price spiral. A baseline disequilibrium approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 262, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. G. Fagiolo & G. Dosi & R. Gabriele, 2004. "Matching, Bargaining, And Wage Setting In An Evolutionary Model Of Labor Market And Output Dynamics," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 157-186.
    5. Chen, Pu & Hsiao, Chih-Ying, 2010. "Looking behind Granger causality," MPRA Paper 24859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ekkehard Ernst & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves," IMK Working Paper 04-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Peter Flaschel & Peter Skott, 2006. "Steindlian Models Of Growth And Stagnation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 303-338, July.
    8. Christian Proaño, 2009. "(De-)Stabilizing two-country macroeconomic interactions in an estimated model of the U.S. and the Euro Area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 421-443, December.
    9. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Hing Hung, 2006. "Interacting Business Cycle Fluctuations: A Two-Country Model," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 51(03), pages 365-394.
    10. Hans‐Martin Krolzig, 2003. "General‐to‐Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 769-801, December.
    11. Asada, Toichiro & Chen, Pu & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter, 2006. "Keynesian dynamics and the wage-price spiral: A baseline disequilibrium model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 90-130, March.
    12. Giorgio Fagiolo & Giovanni Dosi & Roberto Gabriele, 2005. "Towards an evolutionary interpretation of aggregate labor market regularities," Springer Books, in: Uwe Cantner & Elias Dinopoulos & Robert F. Lanzillotti (ed.), Entrepreneurships, the New Economy and Public Policy, pages 223-252, Springer.
    13. Chen, Pu, 2010. "A time series causal model," MPRA Paper 24841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Pu Chen & Chih-Ying Hsiao, 2010. "Causal Inference for Structural Equations: With an Application to Wage-Price Spiral," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 17-36, June.
    15. Toichiro Asada & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Christian R. Proaño, 2007. "Keynesian AD-AS, Quo Vadis?," Working Paper Series 151, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Toichiro Asada & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Keynes-Metzler-Goodwin Model Building: The Closed Economy," Working Paper Series 124, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    17. Christian Proaño Acosta, 2007. "Inflation Differentials and Business Cycle Fluctuations in the European Monetary Union," IMK Working Paper 05-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curves; Mundell effect; Rose effect; monetary policy; Taylor rule; inflation; unemployment; instability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/resssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.