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What happens to Japan if China catches a cold?: A causal analysis of Chinese growth and Japanese growth

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  • Chen, Pu
  • Hsiao, Chih-Ying

Abstract

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study to investigate the directionality of the dependence between the Chinese economy and the Japanese economy. Taking a probabilistic causal approach, we infer the causal dependence among the Japanese economy and the Chinese economy based on observed data. We find evidence that the Chinese growth has both contemporaneous and temporal causal effects on Japanese growth, though the effect is very small. We did not find any evidence that the Japanese growth might have temporal or contemporaneous causal effect on Chinese growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

Volume (Year): 20 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 622-638

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Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:20:y:2008:i:4:p:622-638

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

Related research

Keywords: Inferred causality Recovery of the Japanese economy Sino-Japan economic links Time series causal models;

References

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  1. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 977, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Choi, In, 2005. "Subsampling vector autoregressive tests of linear constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 55-89, January.
  3. Hoover, Kevin D., 2005. "Automatic Inference Of The Contemporaneous Causal Order Of A System Of Equations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 69-77, February.
  4. Peter Spirtes & Clark Glymour & Richard Scheines, 2001. "Causation, Prediction, and Search, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262194406, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2013. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," FIW Working Paper series 116, FIW.
  2. Serge REY & Jacques JAUSSAUD, 2009. "Long-Run Determinants of Japanese Exports to China and the United States: A Sectoral Analysis," Working Papers 4, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2009.

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