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Keynesian AD-AS, Quo Vadis?

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Author Info
Toichiro Asada (Chuo University)
Carl Chiarella () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)
Peter Flaschel (Faculty of Economics, University of Bielefeld)
Christian R. Proaño (Faculty of Economics, University of Bielefeld)

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Abstract

We formulate a dynamic AD-AS model based on gradually adjusting wages and prices, perfect foresight of current inflation rates and adaptive expectations concerning the inflation climate in which the economy operates. The model consists of a wage and a price Phillips curve, a dynamic IS curve as well as a dynamic employment adjustment equation (Okun?s law) and a Taylor interest rate rule. The model can be reduced to a 3D dynamical system by a suitable choice of the Taylor rule and implies strong stability results, in particular for an appropriately chosen interest rate policy rule. Through instrumental variables GMM system estimation with aggregate time series data for the U.K. economy, we obtain parameter estimates which support the specification of our theoretical model and its stability implications. We contrast these results with the standard (formally similarly structured) New Keynesian model with staggered wage and price setting where determinacy of the dynamics represents a severe problem and where (if determinacy can be achieved) inertia-free stability is obtained by the very choice of the solution method.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Working Paper Series with number 151.

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Length: 44
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:151

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Related research
Keywords: AS-AD; wage and price Phillips curve; real wage dynamics; stability; monetary policy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Robert J. Barro, 1994. "The Aggregate-Supply/Aggregate-Demand Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-6, Winter. [Downloadable!]
  3. Peter Flaschel & Göran Kauermann & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Testing Wage And Price Phillips Curves For The United States," Metroeconomica, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 550-581, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Wage and Price Phillips Curves," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 128, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jordi Galí, 2000. "The return of the Phillips curve and other recent developments in business cycle theory," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter, 1996. "Real and monetary cycles in models of Keynes-Wicksell type," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 327-351, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Wells, Graeme, 2003. "The Dynamics Of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 473-475, June. [Downloadable!]
  11. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Keynesian Macrodynamics and the Phillips Curve. An Estimated Baseline Macromodel for the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 147, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  13. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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