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Estimated Non-linearities & Multiple Equilibria in a Model of Distributive-Demand Cycles

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Abstract

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun's law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called distributive curve of the economy. We then provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are 2 stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counter clockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008).

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  • Daniele Tavani & Peter Flaschel & Lance Taylor, 2010. "Estimated Non-linearities & Multiple Equilibria in a Model of Distributive-Demand Cycles," SCEPA working paper series. 2010-6, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    • Handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:2010-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2003. "Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–1998," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 1-41.
    2. Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 375-393, December.
    3. Eckhard Hein & Lena Vogel, 2008. "Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 479-511, May.
    4. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    5. C. W. M. Naastepad, 2006. "Technology, demand and distribution: a cumulative growth model with an application to the Dutch productivity growth slowdown," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 403-434, May.
    6. Peter Flaschel & Göran Kauermann & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Testing Wage And Price Phillips Curves For The United States," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 550-581, November.
    7. Nelson H. Barbosa‐Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy—A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tavani, Daniele, 2012. "Wage bargaining and induced technical change in a linear economy: Model and application to the US (1963–2003)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 117-126.
    2. Michalis Nikiforos & Duncan Foley, 2011. "Distribution and Capacity: Conceptual Issues and Empirical Evidence September," Working Papers 1105, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    3. Daniele Tavani & Peter Flaschel & Lance Taylor, 2011. "Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 519-538, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    profit-led demand; profit squeeze; long phase cycles; multiple steady states; booms; depressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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