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Would African Countries Benefit from the Termination of Kenya's Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU? An Analysis of EU Demand for Imported Roses

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  • Andrew Muhammad

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of Kenya's preferential status on EU demand for imported roses by country. Import demand equations were estimated using a production version of the Rotterdam model in an Armington framework. With the expiration of the Lomé Convention, tariffs (up to 24%) on Kenyan roses were likely if an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) was not signed by January 2008. Roses from African countries not subject to tariffs were expected to displace Kenya's exports in the future. However, results of this study showed that roses from African countries were complements in the EU market and those exports from Zimbabwe and Other African countries would have been negatively impacted if a Kenya-EU EPA was unsuccessful. Given the maximum import duty on Kenyan roses, EU imports from Kenya would decrease by 9.1% and imports from Zimbabwe and Other African countries would decrease by 6% and 4%, respectively. Copyright (c) 2008 The Author. Journal compilation (c) 2008 The Agricultural Economics Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 60 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 220-238

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:60:y:2009:i:1:p:220-238

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Cited by:
  1. Elu Juliet U. & Price Gregory N., 2012. "Remittances and the Financing of Terrorism In Sub-Saharan Africa: 1974 - 2006," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-42, July.
  2. Muhammad, Andrew & Ngeleza, Guyslain K., 2009. "The role of the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) in determining carnation demand in the United Kingdom: implications for Colombian and Kenyan exports," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 48(3), September.
  3. Muhammad, Andrew & McPhail, Lihong Lu & Kiawu, James, 2012. "Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(02), May.
  4. Muhammad, Andrew & D’Souza, Anna & Amponsah, William, 2013. "Violence, Instability, and Trade: Evidence from Kenya’s Cut Flower Sector," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 20-31.

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