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Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option

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  • Andrew Ang
  • Nicolas P.B. Bollen

Abstract

Hedge funds often impose lockups and notice periods to limit the ability of investors to withdraw capital. We model the investor's decision to withdraw capital as a real option and treat lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. Our methodology incorporates time‐varying probabilities of hedge fund failure and optimal early exercise. We estimate a two‐year lockup with a three‐month notice period costs approximately 1% of the initial investment for an investor with constant relative risk aversion utility and risk aversion of three. The cost of illiquidity can easily exceed 10% if the hedge fund manager can arbitrarily suspend withdrawals.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Ang & Nicolas P.B. Bollen, 2010. "Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 1069-1096, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:39:y:2010:i:3:p:1069-1096
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1755-053X.2010.01104.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Itzhak Ben-David & Justin Birru & Andrea Rossi, 2020. "The Performance of Hedge Fund Performance Fees," NBER Working Papers 27454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrew Ang & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Mark M. Westerfield, 2014. "Portfolio Choice with Illiquid Assets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(11), pages 2737-2761, November.
    3. Ang, Andrew & Gorovyy, Sergiy & van Inwegen, Gregory B., 2011. "Hedge fund leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 102-126, October.
    4. Francis Longstaff, 2014. "Valuing Thinly-Traded Assets," NBER Working Papers 20589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Aiken, Adam L. & Clifford, Christopher P. & Ellis, Jesse A., 2015. "Hedge funds and discretionary liquidity restrictions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 197-218.
    6. Aragon, George O. & Martin, J. Spencer & Shi, Zhen, 2019. "Who benefits in a crisis? Evidence from hedge fund stock and option holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 345-361.
    7. Hombert, Johan & Thesmar, David, 2014. "Overcoming limits of arbitrage: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 26-44.
    8. Chen, Linda H. & Dyl, Edward A. & Jiang, George J. & Juneja, Januj A., 2015. "Risk, illiquidity or marketability: What matters for the discounts on private equity placements?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 41-50.
    9. Hong, Xin, 2014. "The dynamics of hedge fund share restrictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 82-99.
    10. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    11. Lee, Dongyeol & Kim, Woo Chang, 2021. "Cost of shareholder engagement by institutional investors under short-swing profit rule," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    12. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Berk A. Sensoy, 2022. "How much for a haircut? Illiquidity, secondary markets, and the value of private equity," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 501-538, June.
    13. Charles Cao & Grant Farnsworth & Bing Liang & Andrew W. Lo, 2017. "Return Smoothing, Liquidity Costs, and Investor Flows: Evidence from a Separate Account Platform," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(7), pages 2233-2250, July.
    14. Schaub, Nic & Schmid, Markus, 2013. "Hedge fund liquidity and performance: Evidence from the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 671-692.
    15. Kurt F. Lewis & Francis A. Longstaff & Lubomir Petrasek, 2017. "Asset Mispricing," NBER Working Papers 23231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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