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South Africa: Macroeconomic challenges after a decade of success

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  • Jeffrey Frankel
  • Ben Smit
  • Federico Sturzenegger

Abstract

More than halfway through the decade, the South African economy has done very well. This report asks whether such achievements provide grounds for complacency. In particular it discusses the current account challenge in light of the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGI-SA) program. Our assessment is that a cautionary note on the need to reduce external imbalances is needed. We provide policy recommendations to minimize the negative impact of a possible sudden stop of capital inflows. On the consistency of ASGI-SA program, we note that, given South Africa's recent employment and productivity performance a large investment program would be required to deliver the desired growth rates. In our view this imposes a large burden on public investment and on the current account itself. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2008 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal Economics of Transition.

Volume (Year): 16 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 639-677

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Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:16:y:2008:i:4:p:639-677

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References

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  1. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
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  5. Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-19, December.
  6. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2004. "Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies," NBER Working Papers 10539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stan Du Plessis & Kevin Kotze, 2012. "Trends and Structural Changes in South African Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 297, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. Arne Heise, 2007. "Institutions, market constellations and growth: The case of South Africa," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(2), pages 313-340, November.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options, for Commodity Exporters in Latin America," Scholarly Articles 5098431, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Philippe Aghion & Johannes Fedderke & Peter Howitt & Chandana Kularatne & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Testing Creative Destruction in an Opening Economy : the Case of the South African Manufacturing Inudstries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "A Comparison of Monetary Anchor Options, Including Product Price Targeting, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 16362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2007. "Poverty and inequality effects of a high growth scenario in South Africa: A dynamic microsimulation CGE analysis," Working Papers 04/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  7. Drazen Derado, 2009. "Financial Integration and Financial Crisis: Croatia Approaching The EMU," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(3), pages 299-328.
  8. O'Gorman, Melanie, 2010. "Racial earnings inequality in South Africa: An assessment of policy options," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 703-718, November.
  9. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 765-793, November.
  10. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "The cyclicality of monetary and fiscal policy in South Africa since 1994," Working Papers 12/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  11. Tatiana Lysenko & Geoff Barnard, 2011. "Strengthening the Macroeconomic Policy Framework in South Africa," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 847, OECD Publishing.

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