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South Africa: Macroeconomic challenges after a decade of success

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Author Info
Jeffrey Frankel
Ben Smit
Federico Sturzenegger

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Abstract

More than halfway through the decade, the South African economy has done very well. This report asks whether such achievements provide grounds for complacency. In particular it discusses the current account challenge in light of the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGI-SA) program. Our assessment is that a cautionary note on the need to reduce external imbalances is needed. We provide policy recommendations to minimize the negative impact of a possible sudden stop of capital inflows. On the consistency of ASGI-SA program, we note that, given South Africa's recent employment and productivity performance a large investment program would be required to deliver the desired growth rates. In our view this imposes a large burden on public investment and on the current account itself. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2008 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0351.2008.00341.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal Economics of Transition.

Volume (Year): 16 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 639-677
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Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:16:y:2008:i:4:p:639-677

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  1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-19, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Frankel, Jeffrey, 1995. "The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 318-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. James Tobin, 1980. "Stabilization Policy Ten Years After," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1980-1), pages 19-90. [Downloadable!]
  7. Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Research Papers 1951, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 9599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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