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Investor Sentiments

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  • Sergei Izmalkov
  • Muhamet Yildiz

Abstract

We consider a general class of games that have been used to model many economic problems where players' sentiments are believed to play an important role. Dropping the common prior assumption, we identify the relevant notion of sentiments for strategic behavior in these games. This notion is tied to how likely a player thinks that some other player has a more optimistic outlook than himself when they obtain their private information. Under this notion, we show that sentiments have a profound effect on strategic outcomes -- even with vanishing uncertainty. (JEL C73, D82, D83, G11)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Microeconomics.

Volume (Year): 2 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 21-38

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:21-38

Note: DOI: 10.1257/mic.2.1.21
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References

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  1. Van Zandt, Timothy & Vives, Xavier, 2007. "Monotone equilibria in Bayesian games of strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 339-360, May.
  2. Carlsson, H. & Damme, E.E.C. van, 1990. "Global games and equilibrium selection," Discussion Paper 1990-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Muhamet Yildiz, 2005. "Wishful Thinking in Strategic Environments," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 666156000000000598, www.najecon.org.
  4. Olga Shurchkov, 2013. "Coordination and learning in dynamic global games: experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 313-334, September.
  5. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
  6. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  7. Ivan Werning & George-Marios Angeletos, 2005. "Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity and Volatility," 2005 Meeting Papers 284, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. David M. Frankel & Stephen Morris & Ady Pauzner, 2000. "Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1490, Econometric Society.
  9. Jakub Steiner & Colin Stewart, 2006. "Contagion through Learning," ESE Discussion Papers 151, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh, revised 10 Aug 2007.
  10. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1990. "Rationalizability, Learning, and Equilibrium in Games with Strategic Complementarities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1255-77, November.
  11. Dekel, Eddie & Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 2004. "Learning to play Bayesian games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 282-303, February.
  12. Van den Steen, Eric, 2003. "Organizational Beliefs and Managerial Vision," Working papers 4224-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  13. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  14. Jonathan Weinstein & Muhamet Yildiz, 2007. "A Structure Theorem for Rationalizability with Application to Robust Predictions of Refinements," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 365-400, 03.
  15. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2007. "Common Belief Foundations of Global Games," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001638, UCLA Department of Economics.
  16. Frank Heinemann & Rosemarie Nagel & Peter Ockenfels, 2004. "The Theory of Global Games on Test: Experimental Analysis of Coordination Games with Public and Private Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1583-1599, 09.
  17. Stephen Morris, 1996. "Speculative investor behavior and learning," Working Papers 96-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  18. Abhijit Banerjee & Rohini Somanathan, 2001. "A Simple Model Of Voice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 189-227, February.
  19. Muhamet Yildiz, 2003. "Bargaining without a Common Prior-An Immediate Agreement Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(3), pages 793-811, 05.
  20. Simon Gervais & Itay Goldstein, 2007. "The Positive Effects of Biased Self-Perceptions in Firms," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 453-496.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Olga Shurchkov, 2013. "Coordination and learning in dynamic global games: experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 313-334, September.
  2. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2007. "Common Belief Foundations of Global Games," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001638, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Oh, Frederick Dongchuhl, 2013. "Contagion of a liquidity crisis between two firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 386-400.
  4. Laurent Mathevet, 2010. "A contraction principle for finite global games," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 539-563, March.
  5. Wolfgang Kuhle, 2013. "A Global Game with Heterogenous Priors," Papers 1312.7860, arXiv.org.
  6. Mathevet, Laurent, 2012. "Beliefs and rationalizability in games with complementarities," MPRA Paper 36032, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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