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Expecting the Unexpected: Emissions Uncertainty and Environmental Market Design

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  • Severin Borenstein
  • James Bushnell
  • Frank A. Wolak
  • Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins

Abstract

We study potential equilibria in California's cap-and-trade market for greenhouse gases (GHGs) based on information available before the market started. We find large ex ante uncertainty in business-as-usual emissions and in the abatement that might result from non-market policies, much larger than the reduction that could plausibly occur in response to an allowance price within a politically acceptable range. This implies that the market price is very likely to be determined by an administrative price floor or ceiling. Similar factors seem likely to be present in other cap-and-trade markets for GHGs.

Suggested Citation

  • Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak & Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins, 2019. "Expecting the Unexpected: Emissions Uncertainty and Environmental Market Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3953-3977, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:11:p:3953-77
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161218
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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