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Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Consumer Search: An Examination of the Retail Gasoline Market

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Author Info
Matt Lewis (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley)

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Abstract

It has been documented that retail gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases in wholesale price than to decreases. However, there is very little theoretical or empirical evidence identifying the market characteristics responsible for this behavior. This paper presents a new theoretical model of asymmetric adjustment that empirically matches observed retail gasoline price behavior better than previously suggested explanations. I develop a "reference price" consumer search model that assumes consumers' expectations of prices are based on prices observed during previous purchases. The model predicts that consumers search less when prices are falling. This reduced search results in higher profit margins and therefore causes a slower price response to cost decreases than to cost increases. I then develop testable implications that distinguish my model from two alternative explanations of asymmetric adjustment. The first is a model in which firms temporarily collude using past prices as a focal price. The second theory suggests that increases in wholesale cost volatility reduce consumer search behavior. Using a panel of gas station prices, I estimate the response pattern of prices to a change in costs. Estimates are consistent with the predictions of the reference price search model and contradict the previously suggested explanations of asymmetric price adjustment.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Industrial Organization with number 0407010.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 21 Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0407010

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "Searching for the Lowest Price When the Distribution of Prices Is Unknown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 689-711, July/Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sam Peltzman, 2000. "Prices Rise Faster than They Fall," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 466-502, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jeffrey D. Karrenbrock, 1991. "The behavior of retail gasoline prices: symmetric or not?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 19-29. [Downloadable!]
  4. Steven Salop & Joseph Stiglitz, 1977. "Bargains and ripoffs: a model of monopolistically competitive price dispersion," Special Studies Papers 94, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Duffy-Deno, Kevin T., 1996. "Retail price asymmetries in local gasoline markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 81-92, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ronald Johnson, 2002. "Search Costs, Lags and Prices at the Pump," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 33-50, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-11, July.
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  11. Varian, Hal R, 1980. "A Model of Sales," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 651-59, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kiviet, Jan F, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2), pages 241-61, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Andrew Eckert, 2002. "Retail price cycles and response asymmetry," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 52-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rob, Rafael, 1985. "Equilibrium Price Distributions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(3), pages 487-504, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Benabou, Roland & Gertner, Robert, 1993. "Search with Learning from Prices: Does Increased Inflationary Uncertainty Lead to Higher Markups?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(1), pages 69-94, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. James M. O'Brien, 2000. "Estimating the value and interest rate risk of interest-bearing transactions deposits," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  17. Justine Hastings, 2000. "Vertical Relationships and Competition in Retail Gasoline Markets: An Empirical Evidence from Contract Changes in Southern California," Competition Policy Center, Working Paper Series CPC00-010, Competition Policy Center, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  18. Borenstein, Severin & Cameron, A Colin & Gilbert, Richard, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 305-39, February.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Ye & John Zyren & Joanne Shore & Michael Burdette, 2005. "Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through in U.S. Gasoline Markets," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(2), pages 179-192, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bakytzhanova Zhuldyz, 2005. "Asymmetric fuel pricing in transition economies: The case of Moscow," EERC Working Paper Series 05-18e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kyle Hyndman, 2005. "Status Quo Effects in Bargaining: An Empirical Analysis of OPEC," Industrial Organization 0511016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. José Luis Moraga-González & Zsolt Sándor & Matthijs R. Wildenbeest, 2008. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Costs of Non-Sequential Search," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-102/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Leon Bettendorf & Stephanie van der Geest & Gerard Kuper, 2005. "Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices adjust Asymmetrically?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-040/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Victoria Dobrynskaya, 2007. "The Optimal Monetary Policy Under Incomplete Pass-Through And Asymmetric Price Rigidity," Working Papers WP13_2007_04, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Wölfing, Nikolas, 2008. "Asymmetric Price Transmission in Supply Function Equilibrium, Carbon Prices and the German Electricity Spot Market," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-040, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael Noel, 2007. "Do Gasoline Prices Resond Asymmetrically to Cost Shocks? The Confounding Effect of Edgeworth Cycles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2007-04, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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