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Do petrol prices increase faster than they fall in market disequilibria?

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  • Chua, Chew Lian
  • De Silva, Chamaka
  • Suardi, Sandy

Abstract

This paper tests the idea that petrol prices respond more quickly to price increases than to decreases. We show that the results previously documented in the literature for Australia are spurious due to failure to establish the stationarity property of the price series, and the co-integration relationship between retail and wholesale prices when neglecting to account for a regime shift in the data. Using a robust approach involving a threshold error correction model, we find little evidence to support the contention that retail petrol price reverts asymmetrically to long-run equilibrium. Asymmetric adjustments in retail prices are found only in four of the twenty-eight retail gas stations in Queensland. These results cast doubt on the previously reported pervasiveness of this asymmetric price response phenomenon in Australia. We further caution on erroneous inference with the use of weekly rather than daily data, and when failing to account for a regime shift in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Chua, Chew Lian & De Silva, Chamaka & Suardi, Sandy, 2017. "Do petrol prices increase faster than they fall in market disequilibria?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 135-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:135-146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.10.024
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    3. María Torrado & Álvaro Escribano, 2020. "European gasoline markets: price transmission asymmetries in mean and variance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(42), pages 4621-4638, September.
    4. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2018. "Asymmetric responses in the timing, and magnitude, of changes in Australian monthly petrol prices to daily oil price changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 89-100.
    5. Prakash, Kushneel & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "Petrol prices and subjective wellbeing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
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    8. Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Sideris, Dimitrios, 2019. "Asymmetric price adjustment and the effects of structural reforms and low demand in the gasoline market: the case of Greece," MPRA Paper 114893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Balaguer, Jacint & Ripollés, Jordi, 2018. "The dynamics pattern of price dispersion in retail fuel markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 546-564.
    10. Palencia-González, Francisco J. & Navío-Marco, Julio & Juberías-Cáceres, Gema, 2020. "Analysis of brand influence in the rockets and feathers effect using disaggregated data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric responses; Petrol prices; Threshold error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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